Kerry simply needs to do okay and he wins. Here's why...
Cokie Roberts mentioned last weekend something about voters in 1980 being unsure if Ronald Reagan was really presidential material. After the debate with Carter some voters told her: "You know, I didn't even think of Ronald Reagan before the debate, but he held his own against the president of the United States for an hour and a half - I actually think he could do the job."
That is all that Kerry need to prove tonight: That he can hold his own against the president of the United States and do the job at least as well as Bush. Why? Because the majority of the public wants someone other than Bush to take over. They think the country is going in the wrong direction, and they want a replacement. But they don't yet trust John Kerry, nor do they yet KNOW John Kerry. And that's where the debates come in.
All Kerry has to do is hold his own against Bush. Come across as having a brain. Come across as having a heart. Come across as having the nerve (not to get too Dorothy on you). All he has to do is be as good as Bush and he's won. People don't want Bush, they want a viable alternative. They're not convinced that Kerry is yet viable. So all he has to be is viable.
That's not to say I don't want Kerry to do even better than ok tonight. But he doesn't have to, and that's why he's going to win.
