For those of you in states that I've given to Bush, please do NOT take this as a discouragement to getting out and voting. There are too many scenarios out there with a 269-269 tie. John Kerry needs to win the popular vote by as large a margin as possible. Please, GO VOTE regardless of what some armchair pundit like myself thinks.
Please also note that individual state polls show many different things. THIS IS JUST MY CALL AS HOW I THINK THINGS WILL TURN OUT ON ELECTION DAY.
On to predictions...
First off, I'm taking this VERY conservatively. I have given Bush states that I think that Kerry can carry with heavy turnout. Those states which I've given him could be marginal for Kerry in the end. What I've focused on is the states with the biggest ground game and looked at current polls and trends like early voting. Given all that, here's my call with help of the LA Times electoral college map (not reliant on their polls, however):
That's a final call of 296 Kerry to 242 Bush.
There are a number of states which could be debated either way, and I'm sure that the ensuing comments will go through all of those details. I have assumed both Ohio and Florida for Kerry. There are scenarios where Kerry can lose one or the other and still win. For example, my current scenario gives Ohio to Kerry, which by my calculations he doesn't actually need to win. Losing Ohio he would still win 276 to 262. I don't believe he will lose Ohio.
Were Kerry to lose Florida and maintain Ohio, it's a 269 to 269 TIE. But remember, I've given Bush WI, NM, and NV. It's quite possible he will carry one or two of those states.
Were he to lose BOTH Ohio and Florida, picking up NM, NV, and WI it's back to a tie. With Colorado's proportional electoral college vote on the ballot, Kerry could win with these states if that initiative passes. Picking up AR in that scenario puts Kerry back on top even losing both Ohio and Florida.
Just for fun, I've also done a WILDLY OPTIMISTIC MAP. This assumes a MASSIVE voter turnout unlike anything seen in decades. Here you go:
That's a wildly optimistic call of 333 Kerry to 205 Bush.
UPDATE: Based on some of the comments, I thought I'd post a RIDICULOUSLY OPTIMISTIC MAP as well. This assumes everything conceivable goes Kerry's way. Here you go:
That's a ridiculously optimistic call of 383 Kerry to 153 Bush.
