Seems the college republicans misled a bunch of elderly Bush supporters in a series of donor appeals to the tune of several million bucks in donations.
I'm sorry, but after reading this article, these donors are morons. Taking out bank loans so you can give to the Bush campaign? Are you nuts?
And now of course, the college repugs are defending what they did. But hey, the way I figure it, isn't this what Bush Republicans are all about anyway? Survival of the fittest, and all that? And in the grand scheme of things, losing your life savings for a lie isn't anything compared to losing your life for one... in Iraq.
Ok, they didn't say he "betrayed" them, but that's only cuz they're still smarting over that memo.
Anywho, here's the transcript of the 60 Minutes broacast tonight. It's incredible. One of those things you mail to every servicemember you know. Though the ones abroad have already voted, still, they need to see this. We're talking people using cardboard and sandbags on their Humvees because Bush sent them without body armor.
Kerry Ahead in 6 States (FL, IA, MI, MN, PA, WI);
Bush Continues to Lead in 3 States (CO, NV, OH);
New Mexico in Play, Tied at 49%,
New Reuters/Zogby Ten States Battleground Poll Reveals
"Democratic hopeful John Kerry continues to lead in six battleground states, and has surged to a tie in New Mexico, according to the latest Reuters/Zogby ten-state battleground poll. The poll also found President Bush continuing to lead in Ohio, Nevada and Colorado. The telephone polls of approximately 600 likely voters per state were conducted from Thursday through Sunday (October 28-31, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points."
THE SAME OLD ARGUMENTS I: Well, I guess they don't have any new ones. Glenn Reynolds says no one should have expected a a mistake-free war. But whence this straw man? Who has ever said that? But let's review: a humiliatingly bollixed war rationale, a completely bollixed post-war campaign, a bare chance of getting through the next few months in Iraq without calamity, a clear increase in terrorism within Iraq, the slow loss of most of our allies, and, with Abu Ghraib, the end of our moral high ground. These are "amazing accomplishments"? Yes, I guess they are. When you run the most powerful military in the history of the world, and had plenty of time to prepare, fucking things up this badly is somewhat amazing.
60 Minutes is reporting right now that our troops have had to put plywood and sand bags on the side of their Humvees and trucks because Bush didn't provide them with the armor they needed. They just interviewed a National Guard big guy who couldn't even answer the question why the troops weren't equipped, he was obviously furious about the situation, and finally said that neither he nor the troops could control why they weren't getting what they needed. Yikes.
As Chris in Paris predicted, 6,500 soldiers in Iraq got their tours extended late yesterday. This is the second extension announced this month. In January, some of them will be replaced (maybe) with the 42nd Infantry of the New York National Guard:
The 42nd Infantry will be the first division-level National Guard deployment
into combat since World War II, reflecting the extraordinarily heavy reliance
the Army is placing on part-time soldiers to provide troops for the Iraq
mission. More than 40 percent of the U.S. force in Iraq is Guard or Reserve.
In three days, this will be beyond politics. But Iraq will still be fubar, and we'll still be short of soldiers. Until, well, you know....
One of our readers got inspired by the Halloween costume post the other day. Apparently while bopping around NYC he ran into a guy dressed as a Marine, and took this photo:
And no, he's not Harry Potter - he's an Abu Ghraib survivor :-)
But the truth is, neither party is fully reckoning with the reality of Iraq—which is that the insurgents, by most accounts, are winning. Even Secretary of State Colin Powell, a former general who stays in touch with the Joint Chiefs, has acknowledged this privately to friends in recent weeks, NEWSWEEK has learned.
This is an old NPR story, but I saw it come up again this year. In case you were wondering what the "Religious" Right is up to on Halloween, here you go:
Each Halloween, members of the Trinity Church in Cedar Hill, Texas, put on a haunted house. But instead of ghostly howls and skeletons in coffins, "Hell House" depicts what the Pentecostal church considers to be sins: a girl having an abortion... another taking drugs at a rave, getting raped, then killing herself... a boy committing suicide in a classroom. In each elaborately staged scene, Satan taunts the sinner, and then drags him or her off to hell. The aim is to save souls through fear.
About 40 people at a time are shepherded through a dozen such scenes. At the end, the sinners are shown suffering their eternal damnation. Then visitors are asked if they want to accept Jesus and join the church. About one in five do.
This was reported this year as a growing phenomenon with Christian churches sponsoring more of these. What wonderful "Christian" people they are, huh?
"This may come as a shock to the Pentagon chief, but most of the [draft] rumors have arisen from actions within the Bush administration, which has studied how to expand draft registration to include women, target some civilian work specialties for special attention by the draft and extend the required draft registration age from 25 years old to 34 years....
"Separately, the agency also has in place a special registration system to draft health care personnel in more than 60 specialties into the military if necessary in a crisis.... Rumors about the draft also have been fueled by the update of contingency plans for a draft of medical personnel in a crisis.
"The New York Times reported this month that the Selective Service System had hired a public relations agency, Widmeyer Communications, to assess how to plan for such a medical draft. The agency advised that 'overtures from Selective Service to the medical community will be seen as precursors to a draft' that could alarm the public, the newspaper reported."
For those of you in states that I've given to Bush, please do NOT take this as a discouragement to getting out and voting. There are too many scenarios out there with a 269-269 tie. John Kerry needs to win the popular vote by as large a margin as possible. Please, GO VOTE regardless of what some armchair pundit like myself thinks.
Please also note that individual state polls show many different things. THIS IS JUST MY CALL AS HOW I THINK THINGS WILL TURN OUT ON ELECTION DAY.
On to predictions...
First off, I'm taking this VERY conservatively. I have given Bush states that I think that Kerry can carry with heavy turnout. Those states which I've given him could be marginal for Kerry in the end. What I've focused on is the states with the biggest ground game and looked at current polls and trends like early voting. Given all that, here's my call with help of the LA Times electoral college map (not reliant on their polls, however):
That's a final call of 296 Kerry to 242 Bush.
There are a number of states which could be debated either way, and I'm sure that the ensuing comments will go through all of those details. I have assumed both Ohio and Florida for Kerry. There are scenarios where Kerry can lose one or the other and still win. For example, my current scenario gives Ohio to Kerry, which by my calculations he doesn't actually need to win. Losing Ohio he would still win 276 to 262. I don't believe he will lose Ohio.
Were Kerry to lose Florida and maintain Ohio, it's a 269 to 269 TIE. But remember, I've given Bush WI, NM, and NV. It's quite possible he will carry one or two of those states.
Were he to lose BOTH Ohio and Florida, picking up NM, NV, and WI it's back to a tie. With Colorado's proportional electoral college vote on the ballot, Kerry could win with these states if that initiative passes. Picking up AR in that scenario puts Kerry back on top even losing both Ohio and Florida.
Just for fun, I've also done a WILDLY OPTIMISTIC MAP. This assumes a MASSIVE voter turnout unlike anything seen in decades. Here you go:
That's a wildly optimistic call of 333 Kerry to 205 Bush.
UPDATE: Based on some of the comments, I thought I'd post a RIDICULOUSLY OPTIMISTIC MAP as well. This assumes everything conceivable goes Kerry's way. Here you go:
That's a ridiculously optimistic call of 383 Kerry to 153 Bush.
From the Washington Post. The current count is 48% to 48%. President Bush is DOWN one point from yesterday.
This remains a Get-Out-The-Vote game. If we show up more than they do, we win. The good news is that the trends in nearly ALL the polls show Bush under 50% and not moving anywhere but down. For an incumbent, not a good sign two days before an election.
I'd asked one of our blog readers to check in while he was away volunteering for the week to help get the vote out in PA. Here are some excerpts from his report:
Hi John -
As promised, I'm writing to you from a week of volunteering for the Kerry campaign in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
I live in New York State (about 2 hours north of NYC), but grew up in Pa. I still have relatives here so it was fairly easy coordinating this time. I'm staying with a sibling in the area. I can't tell you how happy I am I did this.
First, let me say that the Pa Democrats are so organized, it's been
impressive every day I've come in to volunteer. This is the website of the group I'm volunteering with http://www.pavictory04.com/. They are organized and extremely focused on specific ways to make sure Kerry wins Pennsylvania big on Tuesday.
The buzz in the office is so high. People are really energized and
hopeful. That alone would've been worth this trip, but having had an opportunity to help out has made this week's outcome beyond what I had ever imagined. I really feel a part of the Pennsylvania campaign.
The locals papers are split. One endorsed Kerry (Allentown) and one
endorsed Bush (Easton/Bethlehem). I'm only reading the Allentown paper (because it's delivered to my host's address each morning). That paper, The Morning Call has been doing a great job covering the visits by the politicians, the local and national races and had an excellent endorsement of Kerry in their Sunday section last weekend. In 2000, they endorsed Bush, so their endorsement of Kerry this time was BIG.
Before arriving I wondered just how important my coming here might prove. Well, since I've been here, this is a list of the people who've campaigned in and around Allentown (this week):
John Kerry
Bill Clinton
John Edwards
Teresa Heinz Kerry
Hillary Rodham Clinton
Howard Dean
George W. Bush
Valerie Harper/Rob Reiner/Carole King and Ed Rendell (governor of Pa.)
Michael Moore
Rudy Giuliani
and Dick Cheney tomorrow.
The fact that both parties are focusing so much attention on eastern
Pennsylvania and specifically the area north of Philadelphia reinforces my belief that everything from the heavy hitters down to people like me volunteering their time the week before the election is important.
I know I went on and on here, John, so you may not want to share everything I said in your column, but please make sure your readers understand that the vibe here in Allentown is positive and hopeful... we are going to win.
I really believe people will go into the polls on Tuesday and vote their gut. I think they are angry and sick of the lies and the misuse of their money in regards to Iraq and the general US economy. I believe Kerry will win big enough that this will not have to be handed over to the courts.
So the British Museum is demanding that eBay clamp down on the sale of antiquities, as the Brits are apparently worried that their heritage will be plundered and sold to the world. Now, would this not be the same British Museum that plundered the world to get ITS extensive holdings - including the Elgin Marbles, i.e., a big momma hunk of the Parthenon from Athens? And the same British Museum that balks at giving the Greeks back one of the most important, if the not THE most important, piece of their antiquity? Why, yes it is!
I can understand the legit concern of the Brits to stop plundering of their heritage, but they can go Cheney themselves for trying to stop others for doing what they continue to do to this day.
Irainian parliament members are shouting "Death to America!" as they vote to continue their uranium-enrichment program. ABC News (via AP) reports that the "Iranian top nuclear negotiator" says there's a 50 percent chance a compromise can be struck with EUROPEAN, not American, countries to limit their proliferation.
We have screwed up the middle-east and undermined our credibility so much that our diplomatic participation makes it MORE likely the Iranians will build nukes. Now we're relying on the Brits, Germans and French -- THE FRENCH! -- to bail us out of more than just a flu vaccine crisis.
The NY Times report says that both sides are seeing what they want to see in the new bin Laden video but some still waiting to see how it is spun. Personally I can not even imagine how anyone could see it and not be angry that the bastard is still walking around looking healthy but then again I have yet to figure out why anyone would support the Bush camp on most of their policy decisions.
