Petraeus deluded about Iraq factors

This Times of London interview with General Petraeus is extraordinarily disturbing, both for the implications of administration goals and for how badly General Petraeus misunderstands the driving forces of the current conflicts in Iraq.

There is clearly no intention of redeploying troops, or even planning for any kind of withdrawal. When asked if he would like the "surge" to continue indefinitely, Petraeus responds, "It depends on what the sense is for the prospects of achieving Iraq’s constitution." It depends! Whether he wants the surge to continue indefinitely. And that September "deadline" you keep hearing about? Not really a policy deadline at all, according to the General. "That is a deadline for a report not a deadline for a change in policy," he said. I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess that the September report will indicate some improvement, outline continued challenges, and recommend that we continue with the exact same ineffectual policy.

Just as worrisome from an analytical standpoint is the unrelenting -- and wholly misplaced -- focus on the so-called al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI). Priority of the surge? "To disrupt al-Qaeda . . ." Timeframe of the surge? "Al-Qaeda is keenly aware of the Washington clock." Political progress? "[T]ribes changed from being on the fence or tacit support for al-Qaeda to active opposition."

The vast, vast majority of the insurgency in Iraq is driven by native Iraqis, primarily Ba'athist party members and/or sympathizers. AQI activities are almost exclusively limited to suicide bombings, which get attention because they are high-profile, mass-casualty events, but these attacks are in fact a relatively small part of the overall picture. AQI is regularly estimated at 3-5% of the overall insurgency, and its members will be quickly expelled or killed following a U.S. withdrawal. Current cooperation between AQI and the Iraqi-based insurgency is a matter of temporary convenience, not long-term ideological confluence.

Even political progress is framed by Petraeus as AQI-focused, as he cites conflict between AQI and Sunni tribes in Anbar province as an important development. That shift would happen much more quickly if our presence wasn't driving cooperation between all anti-U.S. parties. In fact, Petraeus' only nod to the national government's efforts is to cite an oil revenue distribution law that he claims (without any supporting evidence) is "very, very close."

Petraeus is generally respected by the press and by Iraq and military experts for his past efforts. He was one of the few generals, along with people like Abizaid and McKiernan, who understood things at the beginning of the war. His reputation for insight and integrity, however, only makes the current situation that much more lamentable. It's more of the same: the wrong focus, bad strategy, and mismanagement, making the U.S. less safe, damaging our military, and expanding and extending the war.