Iraqi government hanging on by a thread

Over at DemocracyArsenal, Ilan Goldenberg rightly points out that the Iraqi government is faltering, to say the least. There is basically a rotating boycott of parliament, with Sadrists and Sunnis taking turns at being aggrieved. Currently, the major Sunni party is boycotting both parliament and the cabinet because a member of the party was arrested for his alleged role in a 2005 assassination attempt. Never a good sign.

Ilan notes that a recent cabinet meeting drew only 24 of the 37 ministers, but the Post article he cites did not really explain that fully. The article reports that "several" Sadrist ministers boycotted the meeting, but to the best of my understanding, those ministers have resigned, leaving the positions unfilled. Maliki put forth a list of replacements, which did not get approval from parliament, and he has not yet proposed other candidates. Six other ministers were from the boycotting Sunni group, which strongly opposes the oil law that administration officials (and news reports) keep claiming is just about to pass.

Now Maliki is talking about restructuring the entire government, but it is not clear where his support will come from. Sadrists are chronically unhappy with him, Sunnis are boycotting, the Kurds are wary of the new oil law and support the federalist leanings of the Shia SIIC party (formerly SCIRI) more than Maliki's Dawa group, and the U.S. has already toppled one prime minister (Jaafari) for failing to meet expectations.

This idea that we need to train forces to support the central government is based on a complete fallacy. There is no functioning central government; the "national unity government" hailed by war supporters in early 2006, which never really existed in the first place, is a demonstrated failure. The only think keeping Maliki in power is the complete lack of alternative candidates who could unite enough parliament members to form a ruling coalition, and in the meantime, no progress occurs.