Even the minor progress claims don’t hold up

Brian Beutler does the yeoman’s work of examining some of the more specific instances of "progress" cited by Ambassador Crocker in his testimony last week. It's a great examination of a few specific points, so check it out.

The big lie is often most difficult to disprove, making the idea that general, overall progress is being made is an attractive sell for the administration. When claims regarding any one element are refuted, officials move right on to the next, never fully engaging but playing a game of tag with the facts.

It is vital, therefore, to examine the particulars, and Beutler does so thoroughly. Regarding Crocker's important-sounding assertion that Iraq's economic growth will exceed 6 percent for 2007, Beutler explains that this number, which would sound good for a developed nation, is actually worrisome for a country in Iraq’s dire straits.

[I]t's typical for a country as damaged as Iraq to see its economy fluctuate wildly, resulting in spurts of growth much more substantial than 6 percent. In fact, Iraq's GDP has varied greatly since the 2003 invasion. It climbed 46.5 percent in 2004, after having fallen 41.4 percent in 2003, according to the Brookings Institution's Iraq Index. In other words, though 6 percent would constitute significant growth for a developed nation like the United States, it is nearly meaningless for a country that's experienced as much turmoil as has Iraq.

That’s absolutely correct, and even a much greater improvement in economic growth might be irrelevant to "the great majority of Iraqis, who don’t benefit from government salaries or oil industry profits." With unemployment estimated between 40 and 50 percent, fluctuations in the overall economy are unlikely to affect those who aren't connected to the oil industry or the government payroll.

Even Crocker's insistence that cell phone usage is a positive development is dubious. The heavy reliance on cell phones is due in no small part to the massive damage done to infrastructure – virtually no land lines work.

The reality is, Iraq's economy is in shambles. No business can reasonably be expected to succeed in a place with virtually no electricity, no freedom of movement, no safe structure for exchange, and no security. To pretend otherwise is embarrassing and false.