What's next for Egypt?

As I jumped online this morning after barely accessing email or the internet in August while backpacking through Egypt, Jordan and Israel, I was immediately grabbed by a timely article that was often the topic of discussion during my travels and chats across Egypt. All too often we hear that the US needs to prop up Mubarak, right or wrong, because if we don't the people that hate us will win and the entire region will be thrown into turmoil. What struck me in Egypt was that there was a keen interest in moderate change. As one older man told me "in America you have Bush and as bad as he is, he will eventually be moved out of office. In the UK, Blair may be terrible, but eventually he goes away. In Egypt, we have Mubarak who will never leave and then the country will be ruled by his son, forever. Twenty-five years and then a second generation is a long time."

Person after person talked about their respect and admiration for Sadat ("he brought peace, which is what we all want") and Nasser. When they discussed Mubarak, the voices were lowered and they glanced around, familiar with the thousands of people who criticize and disappear. These were normal people who simply want change, reform and moderation. Feeding their families and searching for a bit of optimism for the future was of key concern which are hardly radical ideas. Imagine as an American an eternal Bush rule, with Halliburton and other GOP-friendly businesses cleaning up on every contract for 25+ years.

The general state of pessimism was striking and obvious to everyone. If the US wants Egypt to remain a friendly country, working with us instead of against us, it's about time we start nurturing leaders who show an interest in spreading out the wealth of the country instead of limiting it in the hands of a select few. To say that our options are black and white is absolute rubbish. Mubarak is almost 80 and in generally poor health so hopefully the US is looking into the future to see who they can partner with to bring change. Considering everything else in the last few years, I suspect our planning is much more focused on Mubarak II which probably means more of the same.