The effects of the declassified Iran NIE are, to a large degree, self-explanatory: Iran stopped pursuing a nuclear weapon in 2003, the 2005 analysis indicating a hell-bent push for them was inaccurate, and it's nearly a decade away from producing materials that would allow for a weapon even if it changed its mind and decided to start up efforts to make one. Again, I think this is pretty clear, but just to reinforce, this means: (1) Bush administration claims about Iranian aggression in the past several months have been largely mendacious, (2) there is now a huge amount of space for negotiations and diplomacy with Iran, with which we share many goals, despite conservative claims to the contrary, and (3) there is no reason to even think about military action against the nation.
The NIE's main conclusions were reported with a high degree of confidence, which usually indicates confirmation from a variety of sources. It's hard to know whether it's right or not, outside of the general idea that intel agencies are generally more likely to warn than not -- under the theory that it's better to be too aggressive in prediction than not enough, despite some pratfalls of this approach (see: WMD, Iraq).
There are two important things, however, that absolutely are knowable: First, the Bush administration knew about these judgments for months and continued its bellicose rhetoric. ThinkProgress has the quotes. Hard to call this anything other than lying.
Second, in terms of process, I'm really curious about why these judgments were released. Just months ago, the administration said the Iran NIE would not be declassified. So why the change of heart? I'd love for the answer to be that either the Democratic leadership of the intel committee of either the House (chaired by Reyes) or Senate (chaired by Rockefeller) insisted. Unfortunately -- and it pains me greatly to say this, but it's true -- Reyes and Rockefeller are stiffs when it comes to this stuff. As Spencer Ackerman notes, both of these guys seemed blindsided by the release, rather than triumphant -- Reyes even said that he wants to be "fully informed about the classified sources upon which this estimate is based" and that he will "review areas where certain agencies dissent." Sounds like a dude who has no idea what's going on. Delightful. In any case, still leaves open the question of who pushed for the release.
Whatever the answer, though, this should really change the entire orientation of US policy towards Iran.
