Monday, January 21, 2008

McCain has yet to win a simple majority of Republican votes


An interesting observation in today's Washington Post:

McCain has yet to clearly win the Republican vote in any contest this year. In South Carolina, he and Huckabee evenly divided GOP voters. The senator's margin came from independents, who represented one-fifth of the vote. The same pattern occurred in New Hampshire, where McCain and Romney evenly split Republicans and McCain won by a big margin among independents. In Michigan, Romney decisively won Republicans on his way to victory there.
And this is why McCain worries me. Yes, he doesn't thrill a majority (or plurality) of Republicans, but he does win over independents, who push him into a majority. The past several years, independents have hated the Republicans and sided with us. McCain threatens that dynamic.

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