One of the most fun -- and perhaps the most gratifying -- things about the 2008 elections is the mess that's evolving on the GOP side. They have very flawed candidates -- flawed by the standards of their fellow Republicans. And, the negativity on their side is intense.
Let's do a quick review. Watching the ABC debate one thing was abundantly clear: The other candidates loathe Mitt Romney. For the past couple weeks, it's been obvious that the GOP "establishment" (the Weekly Standard, National Review types and their moneyed friends) hate and fear Mike Huckabee. John McCain is too much of a maverick and unpredictable. Thompson's campaign was a dud. And, Rudy "9/11" Giuliani seems like he's dropped off the face of the earth. The only candidate with any intensity is Ron Paul and he's got no shot.
What do the Republicans do? New Hampshire will provide some direction. If Romney wins, he may be on a roll. If McCain wins, he may become the default candidate. However this plays out, GOPers aren't going to be happy with their nominee.
On the GOP side, it's tight in NH, with a slight edge to McCain. The polls on the GOP side are closer and more volatile. GOP poll results after the break.
McCain's problem in NH is that he needs to win NH independents. But NH independents are leaning Democratic this year. In the CNN/WMUR poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire, McCain is up by six:
On the Republican side, Sen. John McCain leads former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by a narrower margin -- 32 percent to 26 percent, the survey found. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee -- whose upset win in Iowa came after being outspent by millions of dollars by Romney -- passed former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani to gain third place.
In Saturday's poll, Giuliani had 14 percent and Huckabee had 11 percent; those numbers were reversed on Sunday.
In the Reuters/Zogby tracking poll, McCain is also in the lead:
McCain sailed past Romney in the new poll to open a five-point lead at 34 percent to 29 percent. Huckabee, a Baptist minister and former Arkansas governor, dropped back slightly to 10 percent, barely holding third place over former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani at 9 percent.
"It was a big day for McCain," Zogby said. "He maintains a very big lead among independents, but his problem is that he won't draw as many independents as he did in 2000."
McCain won the state's primary that year with help from a surge of independent support, but eventually lost the Republican nomination to Bush.
About 6 percent in each party remain undecided, according to the New Hampshire poll.
Rasmussen Reports gives McCain a one-point lead over Romney at 32 - 31.
I'll admit to having a bias towards the poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire. Back in 1980, when I was a sophomore at UNH, political science students actually made the calls for the poll back in its early days. One of my favorite professors, Robert Craig, helped start the UNH poll with his colleague, David Moore. Now, according to Mark Blumenthal's rating of the pollsters, the UNH poll is one of the mostly highly respected.
