Barack's Big Night

The campaigns are in full spin mode touting their victories tonight, which is to be expected. But, it is hard for me to see this as anything but a big night for Barack Obama. Or, as Markos put it, a "Huge Night for Obama." Obama won 13 states to Clinton's 8 victories (New Mexico is still to be decided). Obama will probably end up winning a few more delegates tonight than Hillary. NBC's Chuck Todd predicted Obama will secure 841 delegates to Clinton's 837 delegates. Almost a split decision, but he's still ahead.

Worse for Hillary, Obama has the momentum, and has for some time. Stretching out the calendar only helps Obama. He has been steadily catching up to Hillary in state after state, poll after poll -- that's why so many of today's states were actually in play tonight, when most weren't just a couple weeks ago. He has more money than Hillary. And after tonight, even more money will pour into the Obama campaign. Obama outraised Clinton by almost 3 to 1 in January. And the upcoming election calendar favors Obama. There are several caucuses this weekend, including Washington and Maine. Next week is the so-called Chesapeake primary (DC, MD and VA). Obama is expected to do well in all of them. Hillary Clinton had some big wins tonight to be sure -- but they were in states she was always expected to win. As Markos noted tonight: "She didn't exceed expectations anywhere. She lost states she led big in just a few weeks ago." (Hillary was recently ahead in Connecticut, Missouri, Georgia, Alabama and Minnesota, and then lost them all today. And she won California and Massachusetts, but she was always ahead in those states (see CA and MA).) And in any case, she failed to deal Obama a knock-out blow. Even worse, she lost to him in terms of the number of states won, and it looks like she may lose to him in terms of total delegates won.

As with every campaign, we have to deal with the reality of where things stand today. But, sometimes it does help to take a step back. Obama was practically unknown as a serious contender a year ago. He was running against the vaunted, inevitable Clinton machine. Last year, it was the conventional wisdom, we all agreed, that Hillary Clinton would be the Democratic nominee and the race would be wrapped up on Super Tuesday. That didn't happen. Her aura of invincibility is gone. Her inevitability is gone. She's now having to accept debates on Fox News (something she swore off of last year) in the hopes of generating momentum and getting some free air time (because she can't afford much more paid media). That says she's worried. As did her claim of victory in Florida last week, a non-primary where no one campaigned (well, almost no one) and where there were no delegates at stake.

Hillary Clinton is a formidable candidate. If she gets the nomination, she'll be a terrific president and we'll heartily support her. But, today, I think the tide turned against her. She was supposed to win today, the nomination was supposed to be hers. She didn't, and it isn't. It was a much better day to be Barack Obama than Hillary Clinton.