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Wednesday, February 27, 2008

What counts as a "win" for Hillary next Tuesday

From Chris Cillizza at the Washington Post:

What's clear from our conversations is that the expectation among party poobahs is that Clinton needs -- at a minimum -- popular vote victories in Ohio and Texas to continue her campaign until the next big showdown in Pennsylvania in late April.

We couldn't find a single person who thought Clinton could/should go on if she split the raw vote with Obama in Ohio and Texas. "Right now it feels like air going out of a tire very slowly and you'd have to believe that they could not hold the superdelegates with a loss in either [state]," said one Democratic consultant granted anonymity to speak openly.
Others have estimated, more precisely, that Hillary needs to get at least 65% of the delegates in both Texas and Ohio. See Chuck Todd's analysis, below:

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