Professor Juan Cole has an extraordinarily useful breakdown and analysis of the latest political developments in Pakistan. Parties opposed to President Musharraf won a significant victory in recent Parliamentary elections, and multiple disparate parties are now coalescing to form a legislative coalition that should reach roughly a 2/3 majority, which would be enough to amend Pakistan's constitution, among other things. As Cole explains,
The strong two-thirds majority that the new coalition enjoys in the lower house gives the victors the ability to move steadily and swiftly to accomplish their goal of restoring the rule of law and marginalizing Musharraf or even force him to step down. The military, now led by Ashfaq Kiyani, who had been Benazir Bhutto's military secretary, is an important player here but it has not spoken. If Kiyani stays out of civilian politics, Musharraf is likely in trouble. If the army moves again, there is a question of whether the public will stand for it.
One of the reasons I'll never be a good (or perhaps "good") pundit it because I often predict continuation of the status quo while other people are in hysterics about some possible mayhem in another country's domestic situation. Predicting that something will be the same in six or twelve months as it is now doesn't fill airtime very well, but it's often correct. In Pakistan, however, I think there's a very real possibility of significant confrontation between Parliament and President Musharraf. I think, right now, it's still likely that he'll stay in power, but the situation continues to be fluid and very much worth watching.
