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Thursday, April 24, 2008

Are pollsters asking the wrong question about who voters will support in the fall?

Lots of attention was paid to this finding from Pennsylvania's exit poll:

But more Obama supporters said they would be satisfied if Clinton won than vice versa. The animosity between the two camps led 16 percent of Obama supporters to say they would vote for Republican John McCain if Clinton were the nominee. Even more Clinton supporters, 26 percent, said they would defect.
The punditry obsessed over the finding -- and its implications for the fall. But, my friend, John S., an astute observer of politics and pop culture, thinks, that given the political reality, the right question has to be asked of Obama supporters. Here's how he would frame it:
"If Barack Obama were to win the most pledged delegates, the popular vote, and most states after over 50 primaries over the past 6 months, and the democratic super-delegates awarded the nomination to Hillary Clinton anyway, will you vote for Hillary Clinton in the general election in November, John McCain in November, or not cast a vote at all?"
I think John is onto something here. Chances are, the results would be quite different than what the exit poll found on Tuesday. Maybe superdelegates should do their own straw polls to find out.

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