Two more PA polls show unexpectedly close race

We knew it would be a week of polling frenzy. And, it is. Two more today, both from credible and reliable pollsters. Both polls have undecideds in the range of 13-14%, so how the undecideds break is critical. But, think back a couple weeks and this race in PA wasn't supposed to be close. It was supposed to be a Clinton blowout.

The poll from Franklin & Marshall University and the Philadelphia Daily News has Clinton leading Obama by a 46% - 40% margin:

WITH THE Pennsylvania primary six days away, U.S. Sen. Barack Obama has moved within striking distance of rival U.S. Sen. Hillary Clinton, according to a new Daily News/Franklin & Marshall Poll.

Clinton clung to a lead of 46 percent to 40 percent for Obama among likely Democratic voters, with 14 percent undecided. In March, Clinton led 51 percent to 35 percent.

But experts said that the survey may not fully show the impact of Obama's statements last week that small-town Americans are "bitter" over their economic status and "cling to guns or religion."

"It's too soon — you'd have to see polls taken Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday," said political consultant Neil Oxman. "It's clear [internal] polling in both campaigns show an uptick in support for her and a downtick for him."

This poll was conducted April 8 - 13, 2008. So, as instructed by Mr. Oxman, let's look at a poll conducted Monday and Tuesday (April 14th & 15th) from PPP Polling -- it shows an Obama lead: 45% - 42%, which is "a statistical tie":Barack

It seems more clear with each passing day that Hillary Clinton's efforts to hurt Barack Obama for his 'bitter' remarks are not working. Earlier this week PPP showed Obama maintaining a 20 point lead in North Carolina, and now for the third week in a row we show the race in Pennsylvania as a statistical tie.

Obama's gain since PPP's poll last week is not attributable to any major shifts of support from any particular demographic. He simply cut Clinton's lead with whites and women, and increases his advantage with men and black voters.

High turnout in the metro Philadelphia area seems likely to be the key to Obama's success or failure. Right now he leads 53-33 in that region, with Clinton showing a strong advantage in most of the rest of the state.

Also, Obama got two key endorsements today: The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and Bruce.