Joe and I have spoken with Democratic House and Senate candidates, and they agree that Hillary is hurting their campaigns.
One congressional candidate told us that if Hillary is the nominee, it's a guaranteed 5 point hit they take right from the start (meaning, they start the race 5-points down in the polls). Why? Because too many people hate Hillary. That's why her negatives are higher than her positives. She will bring out voters who might not have voted otherwise. And the voters she will bring out will be rabid conservatives who will vote against Democrats across the board.
Another congressional candidate told us that it's even worse than that. Not only will the candidate have to publicly run AGAINST Hillary, should she get the nomination, but she's already damaging their campaign. First off, fundraising. The money isn't coming in, first because everyone is focused on the Hillary-Obama race, and not paying attention to congressional races. Another problem, people are pissed off, on all sides. They're not in the mood to give. And finally, some major donors don't want to give to any second-tier campaigns (meaning, campaigns that have less of a chance, but still have a chance, of winning) until they see whether Hillary or Obama get the nomination. Why? Because if Hillary gets the nomination, our candidates in red states, or states that are red/blue, will get slaughtered, and thus there's no reason to fund them. (We're seeing it on our own site. People are not giving to congressional races like they did in 2006.) And don't forget, even the DNC admitted last week that the ongoing Hillary-Obama saga has hurt their efforts to raise money to take on John McCain.
But there's another problem Hillary is causing. These campaigns can't get the field staff they need. Potential field staff are telling the campaigns that they have no idea what they're doing in the coming months because the Obama-Hillary battle isn't settled. This is a very real problem - one candidate said it's killing them.
One final point, we were told: the black vote. In states or cities with a large black community, Obama will bring them out in droves. Hillary, on the other hand, is suffering from a blacklash, so to speak. Her poll numbers among blacks have plummeted after her campaign's repeated race-baiting. But not only will a Hillary candidacy potentially turn blacks away from voting, it won't inspire them TO vote. One candidate told us that they have a major city with a sizable black vote. The problem? The black community in that area has a notoriously bad voter turnout. If Obama is the nominee, that candidate will get a 3 percentage point bump in the polls votes because of the increased black turnout - but if Hillary is the nominee, they lose that 3%, added on to the 5% hit they take because of her name inspiring every far-right loon to vote.
Hillary's bizarre and reckless desire to continue in the race even after she's lost isn't just hurting our nominee, Barack Obama, she's now hurting our congressional candidates. Our superdelegates in Congress, in the states, and at the DNC, need to do something now to end this farce. Where is Wesley Clark? Where is Al Gore? Where is Jimmy Carter? And where is John Edwards?
