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Wednesday, June 11, 2008

More signs that the congressional Republicans are in trouble

From Chris Cillizza at the Post:

Through April, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had $45 million left to spend on races, compared with just $6.7 million in the bank for the National Republican Congressional Committee.

* The Cook Political Report, one of the most esteemed handicappers of House races (and The Fix's former employer), moved ten (TEN!) Republican-held seats into more competitive categories last week. (The site is subscriber-only and you SHOULD subscribe.) Seven of the ten -- Colorado's 4th, Connecticut's 4th, Illinois's 10th, New York's 29th, North Carolina's 8th, Ohio's 1st and Washington's 8th -- went from "Lean Republican" to "Toss Up". Writes Cook Report's David Wasserman: "Now that Sen. Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee, several GOP incumbents will have to work harder than ever before to survive. While hitching their stars to GOP nominee Sen. John McCain will provide them some cover with independents, unprecedented base Democratic turnout looms as a huge threat beyond their control."
...

The Cook Report currently lists 77 seats on its competitive House race chart (44 Republican-held seats/33 Democratic). Of those 77, 21 Republican districts are rated as "toss-up" while just six Democratic seats carry that label. The Rothenberg Political Report lists 62 total competitive seats -- 37 held by Republicans and 25 controlled by Democrats.

In an informal -- and anonymous -- Fix survey of Democratic and Republican operatives who closely monitor House races, estimates ranged from 43 competitive seats at the low end all the way to 70 on the high end. One thing the operatives, regardless of party affiliation, agreed on, however, was that money is the x-factor in determining how broad (or narrow) the playing field will be in November.

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