Barack Obama has caught up to John McCain in Florida. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over his rival, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are included, the Democrat leads 49% to 47%.
Over the past six months, McCain has maintained leads ranging from seven to sixteen percentage points. Last month, McCain led 48% to 41% in the Sunshine State.
A big push for Obama this month in Florida comes from unaffiliated voters. Last month, he had just a three-point lead in this demographic. This month, he leads by twenty-three.
That's quite a jump.
Keep in mind, Democratic registration has been surging in the Sunshine State. Just two weeks ago, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel reported on a "huge swing" to Democrats in voter registration:
An escalating number of voters registering as Democrats is providing evidence that the 2008 election could produce a wave of support for Barack Obama — and trigger a decades-long shift of party allegiance that could affect elections for a generation.
The numbers are ominous for Republicans: Through May, Democratic voter registration in Broward County was up 6.7 percent. Republican registrations grew just 3 percent while independents rose 2.8 percent.
Democrats have posted even greater gains statewide, up 106,508 voters from January through May, compared with 16,686 for the Republicans.
There are also a slew of competitive House races in Florida this year, which should also help bolster Democratic turnout. For years, there was an unwritten rule among the Florida delegation that the opposing party wouldn't challenge incumbents. Those days are over. By my count, there are eight GOP held seat that are very interesting in Florida. We'll spend more time on these races over the next couple weeks, but keep an eye on:
Florida 8: August 26 primary winner v. incumbent Republic Ric Keller;
Florida 12: Democrat Doug Tudor v. incumbent Republican Adam Putnam; (Because Putnam chairs the GOP conference, he is the third ranking Republican in the House.)
