Further confirmation that It really is close in Arizona

Arizona is John McCain's home state. He should be winning it by a landslide, just as Obama is winning Illinois by 25 points. A big sign of McCain's weakness is that he's in trouble, even in his home state.

Over the weekend, we reported on a new poll showing the presidential race in Arizona had tightened considerably. More confirmation via Rasmussen, which released a poll today showing McCain leading 51% - 46%. A month ago, McCain led by 21% (59% - 38%).

NBC's political team has changed Arizona to a "Lean" state:

In addition to the Colorado and Virginia changes, we have moved McCain’s home state of Arizona from Likely McCain to Lean McCain, a tip to the reality that Arizona, without McCain on the ticket, would have been a contested battleground. A new poll conducted by a Democratic group found McCain with just a four-point lead over Obama in the state, 48%-44%. This comes on the heels of private polls we have seen that show the presidential contest to be tight in Arizona. In addition, McCain's collapse in Hispanic support is contributing to this downturn here as well.

McCain is in trouble in the place where they know him best.