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Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Pennsylvania???

The McCain strategy to focus resources on Pennsylvania doesn't make sense to political analysts -- and me. But, that's because there is no sense behind it. It's desperation. The McCain staffers come from the Rove school. They try to play mind games and use fake-out strategies. They like to think they can outsmart everyone watching. But, fighting for Pennsylvania exposed the reality that they are actually just bad political strategists. If they want to dump money into PA, let them. Meanwhile, Obama can keep racking up the vote in the really competitive states.

From the Los Angeles Times:

John McCain's efforts to snare Pennsylvania appear to be faltering despite a substantial commitment of his time, leaving him with a narrower path to the magic number of 270 electoral votes needed to win the presidency.

McCain is targeting Pennsylvania in hopes of winning at least one state that voted for Democrat John F. Kerry in 2004. With 21 electoral votes, a victory in Pennsylvania could offset possible losses in smaller states captured by President Bush in the last contest.

Yet by any number of measures, McCain's prospects are dimming. An aggregate of public polls shows Barack Obama with a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by more than 1.1 million, about twice the gap in 2004, state figures show.

What's more, prominent Republicans worry that McCain's message is flawed or is being drowned out by waves of Obama ads.
The New York Times:
People are scratching their heads: Why is Senator John McCain here?

Senator Barack Obama has a double-digit lead in recent Pennsylvania polls. Senator John Kerry beat President Bush here in 2004. The previous three Democratic presidential candidates won, too. And this year there are 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state.

But in these frantic last weeks of the 2008 campaign, Mr. McCain has lavished time and money on this now deep-blue state — he made three stops here on Tuesday — as if his political life depended on it. And, from his campaign’s point of view, it does.

“We need to win Pennsylvania on Nov. 4, and with your help — with your help — we’re going to win!” Mr. McCain shouted to the crowd in his first appearance of the day, at a manufacturing plant in Bensalem, north of Philadelphia, where he said that Mr. Obama would raise their taxes and was too untested to handle an international crisis.

Mr. McCain’s strategists insisted that the state and its 21 electoral votes were within reach and crucial to what they acknowledge is an increasingly narrow path to victory. They say that their own polls show Mr. McCain only seven or eight percentage points behind Mr. Obama. (The state polls that show Mr. Obama with a double-digit lead, all conducted in recent weeks, include surveys by Marist, Quinnipiac, Rasmussen, SurveyUSA and The Allentown Morning Call.)
Keep it up, McCain campaign.

QUICK UPDATE @ 9:10 a.m.: I'm watching MSNBC. NBC's Kelly O'Donnell travels with McCain -- and is pretty much a McCain campaign spokesperson. The McCain people told O'Donnell that their polls show movement towards McCain. No one else is seeing it, but O'Donnell seems to believe it because surely no one on the McCain campaign would ever lie. And, Kelly wants us to know that McCain has spent an awful lot of time in New Hampshire. O'Donnell is one painful reporter. All she does is regurgitate McCain talking points.

ANOTHER UPDATE: Here's the Pollster.com chart. It's worse for McCain than Iowa:

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