AMERICAblog News| A great nation deserves the truth: Rothenberg predicting Republican "bloodbath" in next month's elections

Thursday, October 09, 2008

Rothenberg predicting Republican "bloodbath" in next month's elections

by John Aravosis (DC) on 10/09/2008 03:41:00 PM

The outlook in Senate races continues to deteriorate for Republicans, with Democratic gains at least in the high single digits increasingly likely. Where I once wrote in this space that Democrats had a chance of reaching 60 seats in 2010 (“For Democrats, Time to Pad Senate Majority and Think 60 Seats,” Feb. 12, 2007), I now can’t rule out 60 seats for this November.

Virginia and New Mexico are already gone, and Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon aren’t far behind. Add in North Carolina, and Democrats are plus-seven (and at 58 seats) without Minnesota or Mississippi, which are up for grabs.

Republicans can no longer count Kentucky as a lock, and if the Democrats spend significant sums of money against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia, they might even have a chance to swipe that unlikely seat.

In the House of Representatives, Democratic prospects have gone from good to great....

Democrats are now likely to net at least 20 seats, with gains closer to 30 quite possible given the cycle’s dynamics, poll numbers we are seeing and the Democratic financial advantage. This is the kind of cycle when even one or two third-tier Democratic challengers will win, inflating the party’s net gain even further.

While Democratic gains both in the House and Senate could still grow or shrink, for Republicans, the end of this movie won’t be pretty, no matter the ultimate number.

We could see a new modern floor for House Republicans made in November, and it’s likely to be in the 170s, if not the upper 160s. Given the realignment of the Reagan years and the GOP’s advantages coming from the last redistricting, this is an incredibly low level.

Over on the Senate side, Republican numbers could fall further in two years, since more GOP seats than Democratic seats are again up in 2010.

Republicans appear to be heading into a disastrous election that will usher in a very bleak period for the party. A new generation of party leaders will have to figure out how to pick up the pieces and make their party relevant after November.

Stuart Rothenberg (via Cillizza):

The outlook in Senate races continues to deteriorate for Republicans, with Democratic gains at least in the high single digits increasingly likely. Where I once wrote in this space that Democrats had a chance of reaching 60 seats in 2010 (“For Democrats, Time to Pad Senate Majority and Think 60 Seats,” Feb. 12, 2007), I now can’t rule out 60 seats for this November.

Virginia and New Mexico are already gone, and Colorado, Alaska, New Hampshire and Oregon aren’t far behind. Add in North Carolina, and Democrats are plus-seven (and at 58 seats) without Minnesota or Mississippi, which are up for grabs.

Republicans can no longer count Kentucky as a lock, and if the Democrats spend significant sums of money against Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R) in Georgia, they might even have a chance to swipe that unlikely seat.

In the House of Representatives, Democratic prospects have gone from good to great....

Democrats are now likely to net at least 20 seats, with gains closer to 30 quite possible given the cycle’s dynamics, poll numbers we are seeing and the Democratic financial advantage. This is the kind of cycle when even one or two third-tier Democratic challengers will win, inflating the party’s net gain even further.

While Democratic gains both in the House and Senate could still grow or shrink, for Republicans, the end of this movie won’t be pretty, no matter the ultimate number.

We could see a new modern floor for House Republicans made in November, and it’s likely to be in the 170s, if not the upper 160s. Given the realignment of the Reagan years and the GOP’s advantages coming from the last redistricting, this is an incredibly low level.

Over on the Senate side, Republican numbers could fall further in two years, since more GOP seats than Democratic seats are again up in 2010.

Republicans appear to be heading into a disastrous election that will usher in a very bleak period for the party. A new generation of party leaders will have to figure out how to pick up the pieces and make their party relevant after November.