Even with some of the good economic news these days, there are a lot of "buts" out there. From what I can see, we remain in a strange area at the moment, as if everyone is taking a deep breath after the mini run (read: Wall Street thrashing to pump up bonuses with little value to the broader market) and waiting to see what happens next.
In the IT world where I live business is booming right now after a sluggish patch. Corporate buyers aren't as enthusiastic as they were pre-crash, but they are at least moving again. The big fear at the moment is that the autumn could get ugly and push global economies back to where they were a year ago. Hopefully not, but we are not out of the woods yet.
The U.S. services economy — from retailers and restaurants to real estate brokers — contracted less than expected in June in its best showing since before the financial crisis struck last fall, according to a private trade group's gauge.What are you seeing locally? Are people shopping or going to the restaurant? We looked in a few stores last weekend during the big sales (they only happen twice a year here), and the stores varied from empty to hoards of people, but overall few buyers.
But with rising unemployment and constrained credit driving consumers to spend less and save more, one analyst says a sustained economic recovery likely is years, not months, away.
"It's going to take a long time before the economy is really back up to its potential," said Capital Economics analyst Paul Ashworth.
While the U.S. should see growth in the next few months, he said it could be 2011 or 2012 before the economy reaches a rate of activity that helps boost wages, he said.
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