We wrote the other day about how odd it was that the superdelegates from College Democrat of America and Young Democrats of America were refusing to make an endorsement. Obama has overwhelmingly won the youth vote, and he has caused a surge (pardon my French) in youth turnout. So you'd think it would be a no-brainer for the superdelegates who represent the youth vote to endorse the candidate who represents the youth vote. Well, three of the four youth-vote superdelegates - Lauren Wolfe, Crystal Strait, and Awais Khalil - have finally endorsed Obama. And good for them. The final youth-vote superdelegate, David Hardt, is holding out. And that doesn't look good. At some point, you miss your window of opportunity. You still have a chance to get on the Obama bus, David. But the bus isn't going to wait forever. Obama is going to be our nominee, and he's going to be our next president. The only remaining question is whether you're going to announce your endorsement before folks get tired of this little dance. Because at that point, you'll have missed a once in a lifetime opportunity.
Lauren and Awais did a great YouTube video about their Obama endorsement.
Overall, the graphs show that since Super Tuesday, at the beginning of February (over 3 months ago), Hillary has been losing ground to Obama. That's a clear trend, clear momentum, in his direction, and it hasn't changed, even after Rev. Wright, even after Hillary "finding her voice." From ABC, via Ben Smith:
1. Delegates won in the primaries and caucuses:
2. Superdelegates - i.e., members of Congress, Governors, DNC officials. (Note: I added the last data point, for May 13 (today)):
As for the rest of the uncommitted SuperDelegates, you have a choice. Support Obama now and piss off Hillary, or support him later and piss off Obama. Let me put this more clearly, you can either piss off a former president or the next president. Guess which one has more power.
Maine congressman and candidate for U.S. Senate Tom Allen announced his support for Obama this morning, bringing the Illinois senator within one of taking the lead in the NBC News superdelegate count.
Obama has now picked up 20 superdelegates since last Tuesday's contests in North Carolina and Indiana. Clinton has netted 1.5 since then.
The NBC NEWS delegate counts: PLEDGED: Obama 1,590, Clinton 1,426 SUPERS: Clinton 276.5, Obama 276 TOTAL: Obama 1,866, Clinton 1,702.5
It's over. Now it's going to be a contest to see which SuperDelegates get on the train, and which ones wait until the last minute and are forever remembered by the new president as the folks who didn't support him until it was "safe."
The developments left the former first lady with 271.5 superdelegates, to 271 for Obama. Little more than four months ago, on the eve of the primary season, she held a lead of 169-63.
ABC News is the first news organization to place Obama ahead in the one category where Clinton has always led -- superdelegates:
Sen. Barack Obama moved into the lead today in the last category that Sen. Hillary Clinton had claimed to have an edge -- support among the Democratic Party's superdelegates.
The Illinois Democrat grabbed the superdelegate lead thanks to a switch by New Jersey Rep. Donald Payne and an endorsement from previously uncommitted Rep. Peter DeFazio of Oregon.
Those two votes gave Obama a 267-266 lead over Clinton. That is a huge shift since the days when Clinton boasted about a 60-plus vote lead among the party's pros back on Super Tuesday.
Everyone has a different tally for superdelegates. I rely on Democratic Convention Watch. They name names -- their totals are: Clinton 269.5/Obama 263.
It's just a matter of time -- a short amount of time -- before Obama takes the lead on all the sites tracking superdelegates.
Some superdelegates are actually getting their spines.
Since Tuesday's primaries, Obama has gained six superdelegates while Clinton has picked up one. But Clinton also lost a superdelegate Wednesday — DNC member Jennifer McClellan switched her support to Obama — for a net gain of zero.
So, just me, or does anyone else keep having these lyrics go through their head?
Her name is Lola, she was a showgirl. But that was 30 years ago, when they used to have a show. Now it's a disco, but not for Lola. Still in the dress she used to wear, faded feathers in her hair. She sits there so refined, and drinks herself half-blind. She lost her youth and she lost her Tony. Now she's lost her mind!
Do you freaking SuperDelegates need any more information about this woman? She's now using you as human shields. But hey, you just keep sitting on your collective asses, like the DNC, watching Hillary destroy our party. Because, you know, it would be mean to tell her to take a hike now that she's lost. I mean, she might even cry. And sure, she's a Democrat using racism as a political weapon, possibly pushing millions of blacks out of the Democratic party for good, but that's nothing compared to hurting Hillary's feelings. So, yes, let's all just sit back and watch Hillary destroy our nominee and our party over the next month, and then when we lose to McCain in November we can all act really surprised. Never saw that coming.
From the LA Times: "Some who have supported her say they'll switch to Barack Obama if she doesn't make big gains in the remaining Democratic primaries."
Today, Elise at DailyKos launches a plan aimed at moving Connecticut's undecided superdelegates -- so we can wrap this thing up:
TrueBlueCT has a diary up about a CT super delegate who is rumored to be leaning towards Hillary Clinton.
Well, I've got a bit of a project that I'd like to start that's related to this. I would like for us to go - state by state - and convince the remaining undecided super delegates to support Barack Obama. In order to do this, I will need your help. I didn't necessarily plan on having CT go first, but since the rumor is that Olson may be leaning, let's start with CT and go from there!
The rumor from Elise is apparently true. Olson is going to support Clinton. Meanwhile, it looks like Obama has picked up five today, including Joe Andrew who abandoned his support for Clinton to endorse Obama. You should read his letter to superdelegates.
Elise is also really onto something and she's already set up a one-stop shop for info. about Connecticut's superdelegates. We need to do this in every state and end this farce now - no matter who you're for, Obama won the nomination two months ago. It's over, and time to heal our wounds and move on to challenging John McCain.
This week, I emailed the Chair of the DC Democratic State Committee, Anita Bonds, who is listed as an uncommitted superdelegate. We want to do an interview with her for AMERICAblog. I want to know when she'll decide who to support and what factors will influence her decision. No response yet. So, Ms. Bonds, if you read AMERICAblog (or if anyone who knows her reads the blog), please get in touch.
It is probably a good idea for every activist to know who runs their state party. And, it's good for the state party/DNC types to know the activists. They need to hear what real Democrats think, not be swayed by the party insiders or the pundits. We cannot let the pundits and their obsession with fabricated distractions dictate who our nominee is.
2008 Democratic Convention Watch is doing amazing work keeping on track of the superdelegates. Here's their list of supers who haven't endorsed yet. What are they waiting for? Jed wrote a post earlier this week titled "Superdelegates to blame for enabling destructive campaign." Maybe the superdelegates need some intervention. If you get any superdelegate scoops. let us know.
There's been a lot of superdelegate activity lately. We haven't been tracking all of them, but Obama is gaining on Clinton in that one category of delegates where she's always led. This morning, 2008 Democratic Convention Watch has Clinton's margin at 260 - 243, and that's going to keep changing.
A leader of the Democratic Party under Bill Clinton has switched his allegiance to Barack Obama and is encouraging fellow Democrats to "heal the rift in our party" and unite behind the Illinois senator.
Joe Andrew, who was Democratic National Committee chairman from 1999-2001, planned a news conference Thursday in his hometown of Indianapolis to urge other Hoosiers to support Obama in Tuesday's primary, perhaps the most important contest left in the White House race. He also has written a lengthy letter explaining his decision that he plans to send to other superdelegates.
"I am convinced that the primary process has devolved to the point that it's now bad for the Democratic Party," Andrew said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press.
This is actually a very interesting development. Clinton's superdelegate strength has come from party insiders -- that might be starting to crack. Maybe we can actually wrap this thing up.
Also, just in, Obama picked up 3 more superdelegates from Illinois today.
Oh the irony. Sitting in my mailbox today is a note about the next event, viewing a movie about the 2004 election and voting problems in Ohio. But of course on the more pressing matter of this current election, all I hear is rubbish. When I asked how Hillary had so many delegates including the delegate from France despite a clear thrashing overseas, I received some garbled answer that boiled down to "we have a complicated system so please don't ask any more questions" or something like that. Telling me that four years ago "we were busy trying to guess who the VP nominee was going to be" is hardly the same, but hey, who needs to give a clear answer. Or even respond to my follow up question.
The much bigger problem for me and many other Democrats living abroad is why the Superdelegates abroad can't make their choices. Hell, we all voted back in February so why do the Superdelegates have the luxury of doddling and letting the party rip itself to shreds? I asked again why "our" superdelegate Chair, Christine Schon Marques and Theresa Morelli, have not yet voted, the response was that Ms. Marques would decide by 1 July. July? Are you serious? All of this reminds me of why I am sick of the party leadership who continue to fail Democrats over and over and over. As Joe mentioned yesterday, the superdelegate members are enablers and they ought to be more worried about regular Democrats than the Clintons. Keep thumbing your nose at us voters and see how many Democrats are really uncounted.
Jed has a great post excoriating the superdelegates for sitting back and letting Clinton run her kitchen sink strategy against the Democratic frontrunner:
For most of this campaign, the Democratic Party has been unified by optimism that our eventual nominee would trounce the Republican candidate in November, 2008. That began to change towards the end of February, when the contest between Senators Clinton and Obama began to turn sharply negative.
The media and the Clinton campaign deserve their share of blame for this. And Obama is not perfect, either. But the people who deserve the most blame are the superdelegates, for it is their indecision that has made this mess possible in the first place.
Since late February, it has been clear that the Clinton campaign's only hope for victory rested in their hands. Over the past two months, the sole uncertainty about the campaign has been whether or not superdelegates will stage a coup against the voters.
At any point during the last two months, superdelegates could have made it clear that they would support the will of voters. Instead, by declaring their indecision, they provided Clinton with a new rationale for her campaign. Effectively, they encouraged her coup attempt. It was if they said to her: if you can prove to us that Barack Obama is unelectable, we will overturn the judgment of voters.
Let's face it. If you're a DNC member who is a superdelegate, this is as good as it gets. The candidates and their surrogates are calling. The NY Times and CNN might call. You're in the limelight. And, chances are, you're also afraid of the Clintons.
Well, look at what you have wrought. Nice work. It's easy to forget that from 1994 - 2006, the GOP controlled the House and the Senate. Under the "leadership" of many of the Republicans controlled everything from 2000 - 2006. That's who is enabling the current debacle.
Hey SuperDelegates, having fun yet? This is the kind of talk you're going to increasingly get if you let Hillary continue this charade in her effort to destroy our party. We've now got Rush Limbaugh calling for riots in the streets of Denver (something that should get him investigated by the police, the FBI and the Secret Service, and I also have a suspicion there must be an FCC rule or two about this as well - tell me his stations can't be fined millions for inciting violence - who's going to file the complaint?) In any case, expect more of the same, the longer the SuperDelegates let this ridiculous farce drag out. Had they nipped this in the bud weeks ago, we wouldn't now be talking about riots in Denver. It's only going to get worse and worse the longer they let this continue. Cowardice comes with a price.
These surveys, about what percentage of Clinton and Obama voters would rather vote for McCain than the other Democrat, have it all wrong. You don't ask Obama voters a generic hypothetical about whether they'd vote for Hillary if she won the nomination. I don't know a single Obama voter who wouldn't. You ask Obama voters if they'd vote for Hillary if she gets the nomination even if she never catches up to Obama in pledged delegates (i.e., she's handed the nomination by the SuperDelegates and/or some trick involving reinstating Florida and Michigan). Then watch and see how many Obama voters are willing to support her. I think you'll be lucky if she breaks 50%.
I think I finally figured out what's going on with the SuperDelegates. Why half of them are refusing to makeup their minds. First check out this quote from today's NYT:
[D]espite giving it her best shot in what might have been their final debate, interviews on Thursday with a cross-section of these superdelegates — members of Congress, elected officials and party leaders — showed that none had been persuaded much by her attacks on Mr. Obama’s strength as a potential Democratic nominee, his recent gaffes and his relationships with his former pastor and with a onetime member of the Weather Underground.
Then read this, the paragraph that I think explains everything:
John W. Olsen, an uncommitted superdelegate from Connecticut and president of the A.F.L.-C.I.O. there. “I also want to wait and hear from all of the Democrats in the primaries and caucuses who haven’t had a chance to choose and vote yet.”
Here's what's going on. The SuperDs are scared of Hillary and Bill, and their supporters, and while they plan on voting for Obama, they want "cover." And their "cover" is going to be waiting until almost every primary is done - at least the big primary in PA - so they can THEN say "gosh, Obama got the majority of the public and the majority of the delegates - who knew?! - I guess I'll have to support him now." Obviously, that same argument applies now - there is no mathematical way that Hillary can win the popular vote or the delegate count from the primaries and caucuses - but the SuperDs are scared of picking sides. So they want a clearer fait accompli, one they think they'll have after Pennsylvania votes.
It's a bit immature. But there you have it. They're going to vote for Obama, they're just waiting until it's "safe." Whatever.
NBC's Chuck Todd is one of the more astute political observers out there (we thought this before he penned this morning's post, below).
Curious of what the bitterness and anger could look like if Obama is somehow denied the Democratic nomination? Check out the reaction from the ObamaNation over Wednesday’s debate. To put it simply, ABC was under siege yesterday. This may only be a taste of how the ObamaNation would react to a Clinton nomination. If MoveOn is motivated to do a petition campaign against the media over a debate, imagine what Clinton delegates and undecided superdelegates would face this summer if there is doubt. And as the Politico’s Ben Smith pointed out yesterday, it’s also what the GOP would face in the general election, especially if Obama is nominee. The level of devotion among Obama's supporters rivals what Bush had with his flock in 2004. The left-wing blogosphere is MUCH more powerful than what you see on the right this cycle and it reminds us of the advantage Bush had in '04. While we all know about that so-called right-wing voice machine, don’t forget that there is now a left-wing noise machine (on the internet) as well. And it has found its voice.
The ABC debate, according to the network, got 10.7 million viewers.
It also triggered the most furious outrage I've seen from the huge, and growing, Obama activist base, which in this case merged with the liberal Netroots -- which aren't always on the same page -- to generate a volume of complaints about the first 45-minutes of questioning that are pretty impossible to miss.
It's just a small glimpse, I think, of the level of heat the media is going to take in the general election, and John McCain doesn't seem to have any equivalent.
Well, let's not get ahead of ourselves. The Republicans have an amazing ability to turn defeat into victory (and Democrats, the opposite), and they've been playing the media refs for going on 3 decades now. But I've been telling people for a while that the right-wing blogosphere is next to non-existent in power as compared to the left. In a future post, I'll try to analyze why this is. But for now, suffice it to say, there's a reason we bloggers do what we do. You, and we, together make up a rather relevant and powerful force in Democratic, and overall US, politics. Be proud. Be vigilant. And be active. It matters.
