Obviously Merrill forgot to speak with the all-knowing Larry Kudlow of CNBC who sees bright skies and happy days for all. Third term, anyone?
"I still maintain the business cycle is bigger than the government," Merrill's North American economist David Rosenberg said at a client conference in Singapore.
He said the world's largest economy was already in recession as consumer spending and confidence had fallen and jobs losses were rising, with the number of hours worked having fallen sharply.
Describing housing as "the quintessential leading indicator," Rosenberg, a long-time bear on the U.S. economy, said he expected home prices to fall another 15-20 percent before stabilizing.
He also predicted inflation in the United States would slow as consumer spending weakens, and that the Federal Reserve would be forced to cut rates further to deal with the recession.
Of course it is. The only people who think otherwise are the Republicans who created this problem and Wall Street who are immune to the recession thanks to massive welfare checks from taxpayers.
The "Misery Index" was often cited during periods of high unemployment and inflation, such as the mid 1970s and late 1970s to early 1980s.
And some fear the economy may be approaching those levels again.
The official numbers produce a current Misery Index of only 8.9 -- inflation of 3.9% plus unemployment of 5%. That's not far from the Misery Index's low of 6.1 seen in 1998.
But using the estimates on CPI and unemployment from economists skeptical of the government numbers, the Misery Index is actually in the teens. Some worry it could even approach the post-World War II record of 20.6 in 1980.
"We're looking at government numbers that are really out of whack," said Kevin Phillips, author of the book "Bad Money."
And the benefit to consumers? About $28. We can't afford more Republican economics like this. This article is only for the state of Washington so imagine this across the US.
Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., is chairwoman of the Senate Transportation Appropriations subcommittee and has endorsed Clinton. She doesn't support a federal gas tax suspension.
"She has a firsthand look at what's going on with our transportation systems, our roads and our bridges, and from her perspective, this is bad idea," said her spokeswoman, Alex Glass.
There's no guarantee that the plan would result in lower gas prices, but it would deteriorate highway funding, Glass said.
"The gas tax funds the Highway Trust Fund, and there are a number of critical infrastructure needs -- roads and bridges across the country -- that need to be maintained and repaired," she said. "We just can't afford to have crumbling infrastructure."
The price per barrel went over $120 - a new high - and closed at $119.97. Last week's sell off was short lived and buyers jumped on whatever news they could find, which is pretty much the same as any other day. It's going to test the $120 mark a few times but unless the demand eases and suddenly the world has great news in the oil regions, get used to more increases. Add to that Bernanke's Wall Street loving rate cuts (which never quite reach beyond Wall Street, in a good way) and you have this.
Those Republicans sure were right on this. Ha ha, look at those ridiculous people who talk about conservation. They're tree hugging goofballs who want to drive silly little cars. Errrr, nevermind. Mission Accomplished.
Obviously they aren't reading Larry Kudlow and the CNBC cheerleaders. Of course, Kudlow only hobnobs with the same spongers who just received hundreds of billions in bailout money, so they don't see the economic difficulties in quite the same way as the rest. Must be nice.
Seven in 10 people questioned in a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released Friday say things are going badly, with only 30 percent saying things are going well.
"It's been 16 years since the public gave the country's condition such a bad rating: January 1992, to be precise, in the last year in office of the last president named Bush," CNN pollster Keating Holland said.
"Seventy percent is a lot worse than two years ago, when 48 percent thought times were bad and the Republicans lost control of Congress," CNN Senior Political Analyst Bill Schneider added.
These are amazing numbers and considering McCain's economic program is a third Bush term, Democrats need to finish up the primary and start focusing on November. McCain is going to wish he had a problem like Rev. Wright once the Democrats pounce on these numbers because McCain is joined at the hip with the Bush policies that Americans detest. It's all there from tax cuts for the wealthy, less regulation so we can have new problems, an insurance company free-for-all with health care (Bush's policy as well) and that's only the domestic policy. McCain is already struggling to get traction with his own party and this is hardly going to win over independents as the economy continues to sputter.
Fully 73 percent of Americans now disapprove of President Bush's handling of the economy, as his overall approval fell to 27 percent from 32 percent in March.
That represents a burden to Republican candidate John McCain. With poll respondents rating jobs as the top issue, some 61 percent of Americans say they have "major" or "moderate" concerns that McCain will be too closely aligned with Bush's agenda. That exceeds the half of Americans who express concerns over whether Barack Obama is out of touch with small-town values. A comparable 62 percent of Americans say they have concerns about figuring out where Hillary Clinton stands on the issues.
The important point that jumps out in this video exchange is that the fundamentals are there to support a steady increase in the price of oil. The world has not yet hit a price high enough to have enough of an impact on pressuring consumption. CNBC flashes a chart showing per capita oil consumption and the US numbers are not even close to anywhere else.
The Republicans and Bill Clinton made it easy for Detroit to promote gas guzzlers and energy conservation efforts were pushed to the side and labeled as kooky. The other interesting comment is when Boone Pickens - a billionaire oil trader and not a failed businessman like Bush - says "there are plenty of refineries around the world." This is from a Bush supporter and a very conservative Republican, contradicting what the GOP rolls out almost every day when giving their newest excuse for high oil prices. Bush is correct that there are no easy fixes for the problem, though blaming everyone else for problems the GOP created is just the usual "I didn't do it" spin that we've seen since the beginning.
This is a really interesting bit of information pulled out of the home foreclosure report that came out on Tuesday. Just another sign of how excessive the real estate market was and is even today. This suggests much more room to fall before prices even come close to stabilizing.
The numbers were pretty nasty nationwide, as expected, with activity up 23 percent quarter to quarter and 112 percent year over year.
When you break down the sub-categories, however, you find that the number of bank-owned properties is rising faster than ever before. “Typically you’ll see about 20 percent of the foreclosure filings being bank-owned,” RealtyTrac’s Rick Sharga told me in an interview this morning. “We’re getting to a point now where it’s well over 1/3 and aiming at 40 percent, so that just suggests that a lot of these homes can’t even be sold to investors at auctions – because there’s just no equity in the properties.”
One could definitely argue that Americans collect much too much compared to people in other wealthy countries but still, this is yet another troubling sign. Again, when are the damned Democrats going to join forces with the overwhelming majority of Americans and kick Wall Street's ass for the bailout? It may have been something exceptional but any time you change the terms, well, you change the damned terms. Wall Street received their bailout, so let's tell Wall Street how their financial free-for-all is going to change. You are Congress so start acting like it.
"This is not about downsizing. It's about needing gas money," said Nancy Baughman, founder of eBizAuctions, an online auction service she runs out of her garage in Raleigh, N.C. One former affluent customer is now unemployed and had to unload Hermes leather jackets and Versace jeans and silk shirts.
At Craigslist, which has become a kind of online flea market for the world, the number of for-sale listings has soared 70 percent since last July. In March, the number of listings more than doubled to almost 15 million from the year-ago period.
Craigslist CEO Jeff Buckmaster acknowledged the increasing popularity of selling all sort of items on the Web, but said the rate of growth is "moving above the usual trend line." He said he was amazed at the desperate tone in some ads.
The advocates of a "gas tax holiday" are exaggerating the benefits to consumers from their proposal. If the Illinois experience is a guide, there is likely to be some reduction in the price of gas, but it would fall well short of the size of the tax reduction. In order to pay for the tax cut, the government would have to cut back on highway construction and maintenance or find some other way of plugging the shortfall in revenues to the Highway Trust Fund.
For everyone who boldly stated that the weak dollar would never have an negative impact at home ought to be eating their words about now. Sure a weak dollar can mean better exports for the US but for just about everything else, costs are going up. Republican policies including the war, the deficit, the tax cuts and a pro-business (at the expense of consumers) policy have all added up to create a headache for Americans both rich and poor. Add to this list the increasing problems due to the biofuel craze and you have a serious problem that will not be corrected by a simple action or two as both McCain and Hillary are suggesting.
Obama may not be saying the popular thing when he argues against a temporary tax cut on gas but it's the right thing. McCain and Hillary, who both supported the Iraq war, haven't explained where the money will come from for such a big tax cut nor have they or anyone else explained the financial consequences of the Wall Street bailout. (The bailout continues to be the 800 pound gorilla in the room that remains untouched by Democrats and Republicans alike.) Someone needs to start acting like a grownup instead of telling voters how easy answers are going to magically cure years of bad policy.
Many have been predicting the worst recession in decades and now Warren Buffet, the world's richest person, is moving to this camp.
"This is not a field of specialty for me, but my general feeling is that the recession will be longer and deeper than most people think," Buffett said. "This will not be short and shallow.
"I think consumers are feeling gas and food prices," he added, "and not feeling they've got a lot of money for other things."
It's not very comforting that $200 per barrel is even being discussed but unfortunately, the OPEC president isn't the only person kicking this idea around.
He added: "The prices are high due to the fact of the recession in the United States and the economic crisis which has touched several countries, a situation which has an effect on the devaluation of the dollar, and therefore each time the dollar falls one percent, the price of the barrel rises by $4, and of course vice versa," he was quoted as saying in brief remarks to journalists on Sunday.
He added that: "If this (the dollar) strengthens by 10 percent, it is probable that (oil) prices will fall by 40 percent."
If the U.S. economic situation improved from now to the end of the year "that would help the market to stabilize."
Each day I wonder how things could possibly get worse, but they do. The complete mismanagement by Bush and the GOP is all catching up with the US. Why would anyone think that a third Bush term (with McCain) would be a good idea?
"More consumers reported that their personal financial situation had worsened than any time since 1982 due to high fuel and food prices as well as shrinking income gains and widespread reports of declines in home values," The Reuters/University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers said in a statement.
The report showed its reading on one-year inflation expectations climbed to 4.8 percent -- the highest since a similar reading in October 1990 -- from 4.3 percent in March.
Hillary's saber rattling with Iran has helped push oil prices up along with the normal daily issues. How much more misery does she think average Americans can withstand? With a $100 million in the bank, she might not notice the price of oil but everyone else does. Do we really need this kind of aggravation?
More problems in Nigeria, Russia producing less oil, the weak dollar and China's demand shot up 8% from March 2007. In other words, same old, same old. And the dollar has hit an all time record low, trading at $1.60 to the Euro. Absolutely shameful.
It gets worse by the day and we're in yet another weird range. There were a few new incidents today but let's be clear, there will always be another incident. Whether another problem in Nigeria, a hurricane, a whatever, it's always going to be there. The US will keep buying more oil just as China will keep buying more and more oil.
All of this was predictable but the Republicans all made a big joke out of it, dismissing the seriousness of energy independence until we arrived at this period where too many other issues have spiraled out of control such as the fall of the US dollar. It's a good thing voters fell for the Republican propaganda of mocking Democrats on this issue. How's everyone feeling about that now?
It's a good thing the GOP made 'conservation' a dirty word. Oil tested the $117 support level and went up to $117.05 though it has since backed down.
"No," said Chakib Khelil, who is also Algeria's Energy and Mines Minister, when asked by reporters whether OPEC would raise production. "I don't think that any increase in production will have an impact on prices.
There is a balance between supply and demand," he said, speaking during a visit to Kuwait. "Even if we raised the production we may not find a buyer," Khelil said.
He added a previous output increase had failed to bring prices down.
"We raised output last year and there was an increase in prices not decrease." A falling dollar was a main factor behind the surge in oil prices, he said.
A warm welcome to yet another record high with oil prices. I'd say it's safe to say that the $115 support level has been thoroughly tested and it folded faster than Iraqi troops in Basra. Oil closed at $116.79, with $120 looking like an easy target. See what happens when you let industry choose the energy policy of a country?
There is something so wrong about the recent surge from the Dow which celebrated 9,000 job cuts from Citi just after 3,000 from Merrill Lynch. Strange days, though strange days tend to meet reality sooner or later. I'm thinking sooner.
The problems in the airline industry just keep getting worse. Two weeks ago I spent almost 30 minutes circling before landing so news like this is a major concern. Where were all of the business leaders a few years ago when the GOP was busy making fun of energy conservationists and telling everyone to consume as much as they like? If we had a serious policy a few years ago - including during the Clinton years - we might not have such deep problems both for consumers and business.
As cash-strapped airlines pack more passengers on flights into ever-busier airports, pilots are filing internal complaints warning that airline cost-cutting on fuel supplies could be creating a major safety risk.
The complaints, compiled by msnbc.com and NBC News from a database of safety incident reports maintained on behalf of the Federal Aviation Administration, reveal wide-ranging concern among pilots that airlines are compelling them to fly with too little fuel.
