Burnt Orange Report has the results of the Texas Credit Union League poll, which shows fairly tight races on both sides. Very surprising that the Huckster is within reach of McCain:
The poll was commissioned by the Texas Credit Union League, conducted Feb 11-13, with a MOE of +/- 4.9%.
John McCain: 45 (43) Mike Huckabee: 41 (33) Undecided: 5 (13)
And now for the interesting sub-groups and my analysis. It's here that we find something very surprising!
Even though Clinton leads by 8 points in polling statewide, based upon the following sub-samples, Obama would still come out with a delegate lead.
Burnt Orange dissects the numbers to show that, in fact, Obama could come out of Texas with more delegates based on the existing numbers. Worth a read. The complicated Texas delegate selection process is in a league of its own.
Burnt Orange is a terrific blog, and will be especially invaluable over the next couple weeks as we all try to figure out what's going on in the Lone Star State. A guiding principle during this election has been to trust the locals over the national pundits.
Key finding is that McCain isn't closing the deal with his base. It shouldn't be close at this point.
Today is the primary in DC, Virginia and Maryland. And, it matters. Besides the presidential race, there is the very important Democratic primary in Maryland's Fourth Congressional District. Donna Edwards is a better Democrat -- and we sure need more of them.
Already 7:30 am and I haven't seen a Mike Huckabee interview, yet. But I know I will. He's everywhere.
Good for her. Any time a presidential candidate, or any senior political figure, is willing to embrace the gay community, it's a net plus for everyone. I know that sometimes we think these kind of comments from politicians are pandering, or worse, empty promises - and sometimes they are both - but, even if they're empty, they still move the culture very slightly towards the side of tolerance. And that is always a good thing. Especially since you won't hear a lot of Republican presidential candidates touting their pro-gay bona fides. I'd also add that you'd better believe that Hillary and Obama, and all Democrats, are being told by some adviser somewhere to ditch the gays. So the very fact that they don't is still a step in the right direction. Of course it's not everything, but it is something.
Yet another reason why, regardless of who wins the Dem nomination, Hillary and Obama, the Democrat will be far better on so many issues than McCain or Huckabee.
An eclectic mix of candidate surrogates on the the shows today. Huckabee, fresh off his impressive wins in Kansas and Louisiana yesterday, is the only candidate to appear and he's on twice. This GOP race isn't over.
Besides that, you can see Tom DeLay, Karl Rove and George Bush this morning. That's enough to ruin a Sunday, huh? Bush is the only guest on Fox, because Fox is the GOP's network. Meaning there is no reason for any Democratic debate on that network -- ever.
Now, I'm all sure you'll all be watching Bush on Fox:
ABC's "This Week" — Govs. Tim Kaine, D-Va., and Martin O'Malley, D-Md.; Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va.; former Rep. Tom DeLay, R-Texas.
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CBS' "Face the Nation" — Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark.; Joe Trippi, former John Edwards campaign adviser; Karl Rove, former deputy chief of staff to President Bush.
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NBC's "Meet the Press" — Huckabee.
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CNN's "Late Edition" — House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio; former Secretary of State Colin Powell, Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo., and Sen. Robert Menendez, D-N.J.
According to CNN, Mike Huckabee won the Kansas GOP caucus. He won BIG:
With 76 percent of precincts reporting, Huckabee had 62 percent of the vote, compared with 22 percent for Arizona Sen. John McCain and 11 percent for Texas. Rep. Ron Paul.
Big loss for McCain in the first contest after he became the GOP nominee. Dana Bash just told us the Huckster is going to get at least 33 of the 36 delegates from Kansas.
UPDATE from CNN's results page is that Huck got all the delegates in Kansas.
I know the extremist religious right is behind the times, but talk about showing up late to the party. Not just any leader could dive in and support a candidate after the game is over. It takes a special kind of leader to stand up and let the world know that he doesn't care how stupid this looks because McCain has won and the time for leadership was weeks or months ago. Who am I to argue for what passes as vision and bold leadership among the Christian crazies? Just don't give up the dream Mr Dobson. Keep fighting on!
For the first time this year, McCain ran first in a few states among self-identified Republicans. As usual, he was running strongly among independents. Romney was getting the votes of about four in 10 people who described themselves as conservative. McCain was wining about one-third of that group, and Huckabee about one in five.
Overall, Clinton was winning only a slight edge among women and white voters, groups that she had won handily in earlier contests, according to preliminary results from interviews with voters in 16 states leaving polling places.
Obama was collecting the overwhelming majority of votes cast by blacks — a factor in victories in Alabama and Georgia.
Clinton’s continued strong appeal among Hispanics — she was winning nearly six in 10 of their votes — was a big factor in her California triumph, and in her victory in Arizona, too.
Super Tuesday was so much more interesting and exciting than anyone could have imagined a couple months ago.
Big night for Huckabee. He's on the Today Show this morning doing a victory lap. McCain didn't wrap up the GOP nomination. The right wingers still don't love McCain - and it looks like they never will.
This thing will be going on for awhile now -- on both sides.
Those storms last night were brutal. Just brutal...and in February? It's 66 degrees right now in DC. That's not right.
Oh, don't forget what happened on Wall Street yesterday -- a 370 point drop. Could be another wild day in the markets, too.
CNN and CBS have called Connecticut for Obama. I'd put this in the surprise column. A bigger surprise than Clinton winning Massachusetts. We always expected her to win Massachusetts.
CNN called Minnesota for Obama.
Huckabee is doing much better than expected tonight. Not the coronation of McCain everyone expected tonight.
McCain has been predicted the victor in Illinois, Connecticut and New Jersey. Romney won his home state of Massachusetts.
The GOP race is getting interesting tonight. Huckabee seems to be doing better than we might have expected. Romney is holding his own against McCain in Arizona in the exit polls.
It's too close to call in Missouri (I heard there was a very heavy turnout of Mormons in Jackson County - Independence), Oklahoma and Tennessee. It's too early to call Alabama.
Huckabee won the complicated West Virginia caucuses according to NBC. After the first ballot, Mitt was in the lead but hadn't reached 50%. Marc Ambinder reports there was some WV wheeling and dealing between the Huckster and McCain campaigns to prevent a Mitt win. Looks like it worked.
Big week. Right wing talk radio is in overdrive to defeat McCain -- sending the word that a vote for Huckabee is just a vote for McCain. And, don't forget: Romney has Rick Santorum on his team now.
“When we were out there supporting Ronald Reagan, he was running away from him,” Mr. Huckabee said on CNN. “That’s what rankles many of us. He’s a recent convert and now he shouts ‘hallelujah’ louder than the rest of us.”
Recent convert? Hallelujahs? Here's what Huckabee meant: Romney isn't a real Christian.
Almost exclusively Presidential candidates on the shows this weekend. Two appearance by Clinton and McCain. Romney, Obama and Huckabee each get one show. And, Ralph Nader? Why does anyone pay him any attention? He needs some kind of 12-step program for his addiction to the spotlight every four years.
Russert once again has no candidates. No, he just has a panel of "seasoned" pundits who are going to tell us what to think. Russert's panel includes: Mary Matalin, who never has any insight beyond the GOP talking points and, let's not forget, was a leading consultant for that stellar campaign of Fred Thompson; and the biggest loser in the Democratic consultancy (which is filled with losers), Bob Shrum. In other words, there really is no reason to watch Meet the Press. I think AMERICAblog commenters and other political blogs give better analysis and commentary -- by far.
Besides the national poll from Washington Post/ABC News that we posted last night, a slew of state-specific surveys came out last night and this morning. We'll have more on these later but California is almost even on the Democratic side. According to the Field Poll, which has a long, respected history of polling that state, Clinton leads Obama 36 -34. Still 18 percent undecided.
Will any of the candidates veer from their scripts? Make any news?:
ABC's "This Week" — Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., and former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass.
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CBS' "Face the Nation" — Sens. John McCain, R-Ariz., and Barack Obama, D-Ill.
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NBC's "Meet the Press" — Republican strategists Mary Matalin and Mike Murphy; Democratic strategists Bob Shrum and James Carville.
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CNN's "Late Edition" — Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, R-Ark.; Romney; Ralph Nader; Sens. Arlen Specter, R-Pa., and Robert Menendez, D-N.J., and Gov. Janet Napolitano, D-Ariz.
