Public disgruntlement neared a record high and President Bush slipped to his career low in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll.
Eighty-two percent of Americans now say the country's seriously off on the wrong track, up 10 points in the last year to a point from its record high in polls since 1973. And 31 percent approve of Bush's job performance overall, while 66 percent disapprove.
Click here for a PDF with charts and full questionnaire. The country's mood -- and the president's ratings -- are suffering from the double whammy of an unpopular war and a faltering economy. Consistently for the last year, nearly two-thirds of Americans have said the war in Iraq was not worth fighting. And consumer confidence is near its lowest in weekly ABC News polls since late 1985....
Views on the nation's overall direction are sour across the board, again with a partisan and ideological slant: While 95 percent of Democrats and 86 percent of independents say the country's off on the wrong track, this eases to 62 percent of Republicans and 66 percent of conservatives.
Rasmussen Reports has been tracking the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination daily for nineteen months...
However, while Senator Clinton has remained close and competitive in every meaningful measure, she is a close second and the race is over. It has become clear that Barack Obama will be the Democratic nominee. [...]
With this in mind, Rasmussen Reports will soon end our daily tracking of the Democratic race and focus exclusively on the general election competition between Republican John McCain and Democrat Barack Obama.
Basically, it's as you'd expect. Hillary ahead in Indiana, Obama ahead in North Carolina. This will of course means that Indiana changes everything and North Carolina doesn't matter.
"No president has ever had a higher disapproval rating in any CNN or Gallup poll; in fact, this is the first time that any president's disapproval rating has cracked the 70 percent mark," said CNN Polling Director Keating Holland.
NOTE FROM JOHN: To put these polls in context, Joe added a link at the bottom of this post to a Bloomberg News article. The article explains that even if Hillary beats Obama by 25 percentage points in Pennsylvania, she still is unlikely to overtake him in either delegates or the popular vote nationwide:
``I am a big believer that she needs either one, the popular or the delegate count,'' in order to make a case for why she should be the nominee, New Jersey Governor Jon Corzine, a Clinton backer, said in an interview....
To earn that split decision, though, Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain.
Keep these numbers in mind tomorrow night. Hillary needs a 25 point win in Pennsylvania, and even then, she's in trouble. __________
SurveyUSA, which has had a solid track record this year, finds a 6-point lead for Clinton, down from 14 last week:
The survey concluded that Clinton will finish with 50 percent, 6 percentage points ahead of Obama. The margin of sampling error is 3.8 percent.
Looking only at SurveyUSA numbers and ignoring the polls that have been released by 12 competing pollsters in Pennsylvania, Obama gained ground in a week when he was largely on defense and off-message. Last week, SurveyUSA had Clinton ahead by 14 points. Monday, in a poll conducted using the identical methodology, SurveyUSA found Clinton ahead by 6 points.
Of all the polls coming out today, SurveyUSA is the most surprising and shows the biggest movement for Obama.
New York Sen. Hillary Clinton leads Illinois Sen. Barack Obama 51 - 44 percent among Pennsylvania likely Democratic primary voters, compared to 50 - 44 percent last week, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
White voters back Sen. Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while blacks back Sen. Obama 84 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. A look at other subgroups shows:
* Women back Clinton 57 - 38 percent, while men are for Obama 53 - 42 percent; * White Catholics are for Clinton 66 - 29 percent; * Voters under 45 go with Obama 57 - 41, while older voters back Clinton 54 - 40 percent.
PPP Polling, which has also proven to be pretty accurate this year, has Obama leading Clinton by a 3 point margin:
Barack Obama 49 Hillary Clinton 46
For the fourth week in a row PPP is showing the margin between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in Pennsylvania to be at three points or less.
With such a close race the final result tomorrow should hinge on turnout. If there is disproportionately high turnout in the Philadelphia metro area, where Obama has a 58-32 lead, he could pull out a victory. Clinton is dominating throughout pretty much the rest of the state.
Regardless of whether Clinton or Obama finally wins this primary, it is almost certain the margin will be so small as to have minimal effect on the delegate count.
There you have it.
Keep in mind, Hillary Clinton was always supposed to win Pennsylvania by a very wide margin. She had been way up in the polls -- and has the Rendell machine working very hard on her behalf. Bloomberg reports Clinton "Needs Record Margins" to even stay in the game:
To overtake Barack Obama in the nationwide popular vote, Hillary Clinton needs a bigger win in tomorrow's Pennsylvania primary than she has had in any major contest so far. And that's just for starters.
The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg just released their latest polls from Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Indiana. Here are the head-to-head numbers:
The poll found Clinton leading Obama 46% to 41% in Pennsylvania -- a far cry from the double-digit margins she held in earlier polls.
In Indiana, where little polling has occurred, previous surveys gave Clinton the edge. The Times/Bloomberg poll put Obama ahead, 40% to 35%.
The leads in Pennsylvania and Indiana are within the poll's margin of sampling error.
In North Carolina, the poll found, Obama leads Clinton 47% to 34% -- a finding in keeping with expectations that he will do well in the state, which has a large African American population. Among blacks there, 71% supported Obama; only 5% backed Clinton and 24% were undecided.
One reason Clinton is struggling in Indiana and North Carolina is that a mainstay of her coalition in earlier contests -- women -- have been defecting. In Indiana, the poll found women split their vote, 35% for each candidate. In North Carolina, they favored Obama, 43% to 36%.
Many interesting nuggets, but this is probably the most interesting:
In Pennsylvania, the flap seems to have marginally helped Obama more than hurt him: 24% said his handling of the issue made them think more highly of him; 15% said it made them think less highly of him; 58% said it made no difference in their views.
Let's see how the painfully pompous pundits dissect that number. Of course, they'll all have to wait for Time Magazine's chief pompous pundit, Mark Halperin, to explain what it means. But, he'll have to wait for the talking points from his high level source at the Clinton campaign to explain it to him.
Remember, Clinton is supposed to win Pennsylvania by 20 points. That's the margin she needs to declare victory.
Congressional Quarterly has just released an analysis predicting that Hillary will only win 3 delegates more than Obama in the Pennsylvania primary next week. We'll be watching carefully to see which reporters try to spin Hillary's victory next week - a 20-poin victory that the polls have predicted for 12 months now - as a "stunning upset" that "changes everything." We'll be memorializing those "journalists" by name on election day, next Tuesday. Current delegate tally Obama: 1,632 Clinton: 1,489
Pennsylvania may give Hillary a 3 delegate bump. That's a 0.2% increase in her number of delegates, meaning that rather than losing to Obama by 143 delegates, she'll be losing to Obama by 140. Yep, it's going to change EVERYTHING. Stay tuned.
And for the Hillary spinmeisters out there, here are the actual polls from PA over the past 18 months.
Note that up until just recently, Hillary had a nearly 20 point lead. If she wins by 20 points, then she meets expectations, she doesn't beat them. We already know that Hillary is going to win PA, that is the conventional wisdom and has been the conventional wisdom since the beginning of 2007. Meeting that conventional wisdom is certainly a "win" for Hillary, but winning a state you're supposed to win does not an "upset" make. The only "news" that may come from next Tuesday is whether Obama beats expectations by cutting into Hillary's 20 point lead that she held for a year. The other real "news" is how Hillary has squandered her lead in PA over the past three to four months. Look at those polls. It's a disaster for her. And more recently, not only has Obama been catching up to her, but her numbers are dropping. Again, hanging on by the skin of your teeth is not an upset.
This is the first concrete sign, I've seen, of a voter backlash against Hillary. Well, perhaps not a backlash as much as a realization that it's over for Hillary, she lost the race two months ago. Not only do voters want to back a winner, they really don't want to back someone who has already lost - at some point, no matter how ardent a supporter, when you realize that your candidate doesn't have a chance, you hang it up and go home. This is the first sign that Hillary's strongest supporters, white women, are going home. From McClatchy:
Clinton's strongest core of support — white women — is beginning to erode in Pennsylvania, the site of the critical April 22 Democratic presidential primary, and a loss here could effectively end her White House run.
A Quinnipiac University survey taken April 3-6 in Pennsylvania found that Clinton's support fell 6 percentage points in a week among white women. Nationally, a Lifetime Networks poll of women found that 26 percent said they liked Clinton less now than in January, while only 15 percent said they liked her more.
This part of the story is particularly interesting:
A lot of white women, and for that matter white men, want the race to end and increasingly consider Obama an acceptable nominee.
"There may be a general, reluctant acceptance that things just don't look that good for Clinton," said Susan Carroll, a professor of political science and women's and gender studies at Rutgers University.
The most familiar echo among many Pennsylvania women when they discuss Clinton, however, is disappointment. Ask them when they became disillusioned with the woman who would be president, and they can cite almost the exact moment.
For Clare Howard, a meditation teacher from Southhampton, it was the night in January when Bill Clinton suggested that Obama did well in the South Carolina primary because of his race.
That went too far, said Howard, 60. "It was like they would do anything to win," she said.
Joan Schmidt, 60, a school psychologist in Levittown, grew tired of hearing Clinton tout — and exaggerate — her experience.
President Bush's approval trend has taken a sharp downturn in recent weeks, to fall to a new low for the administration at 28.3%. This follows a lengthy period of stable approval at around 32-33%.
Recent polls from Gallup and AP/Ipsos put approval at 28%, a new low for the Gallup poll. Harris recently found approval at 26% while CBS News put approval at 28%. Pew similarly has approval at 28%, though the Diageo/Hotline result for registered voters (as opposed to adults in the other polls) has approval at 35%, the only recent poll over 30%.
This chart from Pollster.com is fascinating. And, McCain wants to be Bush. Okay.
More bad news for Hillary Clinton today. While Clinton and her campaign think she's the stronger candidate in November, that's not the prevalent view. In fact, it's way off according to Gallup:
The survey was conducted March 24-27, interviewing a nationally representative sample of 1,005 Gallup Panel members. Democrats were asked whether Clinton or Obama has the better chance of defeating McCain in November: 59% say Obama does; 30% say Clinton. Republicans were asked whether McCain has a better chance of defeating Clinton or Obama on Election Day. Sixty-four percent say McCain has a better chance of beating Clinton, compared with only 22% choosing Obama, meaning Republicans view Obama as the more formidable candidate.
This seriously undermines Clinton's electability argument.
And to add insult to injury, even Clinton supporters think the campaign is hurting Democratic chances in November:
When asked about the effects of the continuing Democratic nomination campaign on the party's general election chances, 56% of Democrats say it is doing "more harm than good," while 35% think it is doing "more good than harm."
As would be expected, most Democrats who favor Obama for the nomination believe the ongoing campaign is doing more to hurt (61%) than to aid (32%) the party's chances of winning in November. But Clinton supporters also tend to believe this -- 48% say the continuing campaign is doing more harm than good, while 40% say it is doing more good than harm.
NOTE FROM JOHN: At this point, one has to ask what is Hillary's point in continuing. We already know that she can't catch up to Obama in delegates or in the popular vote. Her only hope is to prove to the SuperDelegates that she's more electable than Obama, in the hopes that they overthrow him for her. But under what possible scenario does she see that happening? The polls keep showing Obama faring better against McCain than Hillary, and Republican voters are chomping at the bit for Hillary to be the candidate - and that's never a good sign. So we have to ask, under what possible scenario does Hillary see herself becoming the nominee? While it's cute for her to compare herself to Rocky - and more than a bit dated - at this point she needs to explain, for real, without jokes or platitudes, under what specific scenario she could win this nomination. There simply isn't one - she has no excuse for remaining in the race. And that means there is no reason for the remaining SuperDelegates to remain on the fence and watch Hillary damage our chances at victory in the fall, other than their own cowardice.
This is the fourth consecutive Gallup Poll Daily tracking report showing Obama with a statistically significant lead. It marks the first time since late February that either Clinton or Obama has sustained a statistically significant lead in the race for more than two consecutive days.
McCain is losing three in 10 conservatives to either Obama or Clinton, far more than he likely could stand to see slip away. Democratic presidential candidates since 1988 have won 15 to 20 percent of conservatives, not 30 percent.
That poses a potentially difficult straddle for McCain – reassuring conservatives on his right without alienating moderates and independents in the center. Currently many more Americans call Obama "about right" ideologically, 56 percent, than McCain, 41 percent....
At the same time, Obama's race still rates as a slight net positive for him, as does Clinton's sex for her, compared with the net negative of McCain's age. Americans by a 23-point margin are less enthusiastic about McCain given the fact that he'd be the oldest first-term president; by an 8-point margin, they're more enthusiastic about Obama given that he'd be the first African-American president. Clinton's net positive on being the first woman president is about the same, 9 points.
Obama's race is a net positive for Democrats by 20 points and independents by a slight 5 points, negative for Republicans by 5. Clinton's sex is a net positive for Democrats and independents, negative for Republicans. McCain's age, by contrast, is a net negative across party lines, although to varying degrees....
Despite reduced violence in Iraq, 63 percent of Americans continue to say that given its costs vs. benefits the war was not worth fighting. And fewer than half, 43 percent, are persuaded the United States is making significant progress restoring civil order there.... among independents only a third say it was worth fighting, and just 40 percent see significant progress on civil order....
Only 47 percent of conservatives, and 52 percent of Republicans, pick McCain as better suited in terms of his personality and temperament
For the first set, Obama is up by 2 percent in Ohio, Hillary is up by 2 percent in Texas, Hillary is up by 3 percent in Rhode Island and Obama is up by a 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
The second set is similarly close - Hillary up by 2 percent in Ohio, the two Democrats tied in Texas, Obama ahead by 2 percent in Rhode Island and a similar 2 to 1 margin in Vermont.
When all registered voters were asked who they favored in a head-to-head general election match up between Obama and McCain, Obama led by 12 percentage points, 50 to 38 percent.
In a Clinton-McCain match up, registered voters were evenly split, with 46 percent backing each candidate.
Obama beats McCain by 10 points among independents, while McCain beats Clinton by 17 points among that group.
As I've mentioned here before, I really think Hillary may have a problem getting the Democratic nomination. First, a caveat: At this point, national polls don't really matter. The key polls are those in the early states including Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. That being said, however, there is a trend developing in the national polls for the Democratic nomination shown in the latest Reuters/Zogby poll. Hillary Clinton isn't looking so dominating and invincible:
Clinton led Obama 38 percent to 27 percent in the new poll, a 10-point fall from her 46 percent to 25 percent lead last month. The drop followed a month of attacks on the New York senator from her rivals and a heavily criticized performance in a late-October debate.
Former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina remained in third place, climbing four points to 13 percent. All other Democratic contenders scored in low single digits, including New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson at 4 percent.
About 14 percent of Democratic voters nationwide are still uncertain of their choice as the first contest approaches in Iowa, which kicks off the state-by-state battle to pick candidates for the November 4, 2008, presidential election.
The poll was similar to several other national and state surveys showing Obama, a first-term Illinois senator, gaining on Clinton, the senator from New York who has led most polls all year.
This is a bad time to be losing momentum for any candidate. Tomorrow starts the holiday season. Even in the early states, it's going to be hard for voters to focus on caucuses and primaries which fall in early January. It's going to be very difficult for Clinton to regain momentum during December. The first caucus in Iowa is January 3rd. There's almost no time to refocus the attention of voters after the holidays but before voting actually starts.
I don't have a horse in this nomination race. I'll support the Democratic nominee whoever she or he may be. But from the perspective of a political junkie, this is getting very, very interesting to say the least.
After six years of George Bush, right-wing control of Congress, neoconservative dominance, endless liberty-infringement and lawbreaking at home, and the Iraq War, what is the most disliked institution in America? According to the new Pew Poll:
Notably, there is an erosion in the favorability of virtually every political and media institution in the United States, but the Republican Party is at the very bottom -- lower than the press, the judges, the liberals, the Congress and all of its other Evil bogeymen. Yet the Democrats continue to give them whatever they want, dreadfully fearful of their great power and popularity.
The Pew report is primarily about the public's view of news organizations. It included these nuggets.
Fully 63% of Americans who count Fox as their main news source say news stories are often inaccurate – a view held by fewer than half of those who cite CNN (46%) or network news (41%) as their main source.
...Further analysis of the data shows that being a Republican and a Fox viewer are related to negative opinions of the mainstream media. The overlapping impact of these two factors can most clearly be seen in the favorability ratings of network TV news, major national newspapers, and the daily newspapers that respondents are most familiar with. For all three, Republicans who count Fox as their main news source are considerably more critical than Republicans who rely on other sources.
Wonder who still supports George Bush? According to AP, the profile of the remaining Bush supporters looks remarkably like Bush:
To see the type of person who still backs him, President Bush need only look in the mirror. The president fits the composite of today's Bush supporter: a conservative, white, Republican man, an evangelical Christian who goes to church regularly.
You can probably add homophobic (but maybe a closet case), pro-Iraq war (but not a veteran) and either rich or just not very bright.
Maybe if Bush speaks sloooooowwwweeeeerrrr and loooouuuuddddeeeerrrr, they might understand, no? Don't be surprised if that's what the right actually thinks about their message. No surprises here.
The US comes in for sharp criticism. "Global distrust of American leadership is reflected in increasing disapproval of the cornerstones of US foreign policy," the survey says. "Not only is there worldwide support for a withdrawal of US troops from Iraq but there is also considerable opposition to US and Nato operations in Afghanistan ... The US image remains abysmal in most Muslim countries in the Middle East and Asia and continues to decline among the publics of America's oldest allies."
Nine per cent of Turks, 13% of Palestinians and 15% of Pakistanis take a favourable view of the US. In Germany, the figure is 30%, in France 39% and in Britain 51% - all down on previous surveys. Only in Israel, Ghana, Nigeria and Kenya do majorities believe US forces should stay in Iraq.
The good news in this otherwise predictable but still sad study is that there is a world leader who even even less trusted, so at least Bush has that going for him. Break out the Champagne, errr, the non-alcoholic beer, Putin is worse!
Rising powers such as China and Russia get mixed reviews. Russia's Vladimir Putin scores worse than George Bush in terms of confidence that he will "do the right thing" in world affairs - 30% believe he will, against 45% for Mr Bush.
