Sounds great. Two highly unpopular Presidents meet with one being gone from politics in a matter of months and the other looking like a one-and-done. Yep, US-France relations are rock solid now.
The truth is nobody cares about Bush because he's gone soon and the Sarkozy is moving up in the polling but it's going to take time before people forget his catastrophic first year. Obama continues to get a lot of press here and people are definitely waking up to our never-ending campaign. Yesterday I was greeted by my dentist who with a smile said "Obama is ahead!" though I think that's because he wanted to cheer me up before the drilling started. (It didn't work.)
Just weeks ago, the right wing media couldn't stop talking about Sarkozy. Yes, even the GOP presidential candidates all chimed in, talking about how Sarkozy was moving France in the direction of the US. Hmm. It's true, Sarkozy would fit in well with the religious right in America and the GOP presidential candidates. He's about to leap into his third marriage so indeed, he would fit in well with the GOP crowd.
Last summer, Sarkozy was enjoying support in the mid 60's though a more recent poll has him down to 48%. The circus-like atmosphere of his love life being played out in the tabloid media might be tolerated if there were results. The problem is, the big agenda has been put aside and replaced with The Sarko Show. The only real change is that now, like in America, every personal detail of the president is openly displayed in the press. The theater, like in America, is often just what they want people to see and believe. (Remember Bush, the CEO president?) Without a quick turnaround and serious focus, he's going to be as ineffective as Chirac. The Socialists - left for dead only months ago - could not have asked for anything better.
As much as I may disagree with certain policies and comments by Nicolas Sarkozy, he has always impressed me with his drive to modernize France and make it an all inclusive society. When he presented his new cabinet, it was a radical change from the past. Now, he's is refusing the initial annual honors list and demanding new faces from all backgrounds. This kind of change is long overdue. More on his campaign of diversity, after the jump.
Ministers are hurriedly working on new lists for the Légion d'Honneur, awarded to "eminent" French and foreign citizens, and the Ordre Nationale du Mérite, awarded for "distinguished" achievement. Announcements are expected in the next few days.
In the case of the country's second ranking honour, the Ordré du Merite, the new list, already almost two months overdue, is expected to include equal numbers of men and women for the first time. The list of recipients of the Légion d'Honneur, which was due on 1 January, may not be equally balanced but will contain more women than ever before. In future, President Sarkozy has made it clear, he wants to see parity between the sexes in the award of honours.
According to the newspaper Le Monde, President Sarkozy was also unhappy that the proposed lists contained too many civil servants and politicians and, implicitly, too many white people. He has asked for candidates who reflect "French diversity" and more people from businesses and charitable associations.
Overall, of 1,340 new nominations to the order, less than a third were women.
Sarkozy "The American" ran on a campaign to change France. The deficit in France is about the same as in the US even without an expensive war. The initial small strikes were only the first play in a long match with each sides seeing how the other would react. Now it's the real thing, with trains and metros shut down and power shortages coming via other unions. Students are in the queue and I'm sure there are a few other groups waiting in the wings.
The issue is whether to bring the rail worker unions into the norm with the rest of the population. Currently many can retire at 50 or 55 whereas those outside of the union are typically thrown on the street at that age with little hope of ever finding employment to finish their working life. One key argument that the government workers make is that their jobs are boring and they accept lower pay and better retirement plans. Hmm, how about everyone else that makes somewhat more money (though not drastically more) but has less and less job security?
Sarkozy still enjoys high general approval numbers though people are starting to doubt his capabilities to implement the change he spoke about in the campaign. The next few weeks will either break him, much as it did to Chirac when faced with strikes, or make him much more powerful. It's hard to say if either outcome is good for the country, but we shall know more soon.
With the announcement of his divorce, which will be his second, he must be trying to reach out to the GOP who have a lot of depth and experience in such matters. It's not much of a shock to anyone in France despite what the media is reporting. The timing of the announcement was interesting, coming on the first day of the first national strike against the proposed changes to the retirement plans for state workers which is not unlike the Bush team releasing bad news on Friday afternoons.
Thinking back, it is interesting to wonder whether voters would really have cared about the marital status of Sarkozy during the election. The French are not religious moralizers like we often see in US politics though his core voters were definitely conservative. I doubt they would have cared, especially considering the marital status of her competitor who was living with the father of her children but who separated shortly after. Can you imagine any US candidate going into an election divorced and single?
On Friday the talk was all about a massive landslide in the parliamentary elections in France, with Sarkozy's UMP winning at least 400 seats and the Socialist party struggling to win 100 but it did not quite work out that way. Fears of a rubber stamp majority - well founded, as we know from recent experience in America - plus the left jumping on Sarkozy's plan to increase the VAT tax (to pay for tax cuts elsewhere) led to an actual decline for the UMP who dropped from 359 seats to 346 while the left gathered 226 seats in total. Sarkozy can still push through legislation with ease though it will not be quite as easy as he expected.
With the elections finished, Sarkozy will soon launch his program of reform for France, even keeping Parliament in session during the summer holidays when most of the country is away. This tactic has been used in the past, typically to announce what could be considered an unpopular reform, with the hope that it will get lost in the vacation shuffle, much like we see on Friday afternoons when the Bush administration announces unpopular news. With greater reform being discussed, most are bracing themselves for a lively return in September when most are predicting mass protests.
Also out yesterday was the news of the breakup of Socialist presidential candidate Segolene Royal and partner Francois Hollande, Socialist party leader and father of her children. Rumors had been widespread for months about trouble and the two have been publicly trading barbs during the campaign season so it comes as very little surprise.
Bernard Kouchner is known as one of the founders of Doctors without Borders but also has extensive experience in foreign affairs. With so many people nervous about what they think may happen under a Sarkozy government, this is a pretty good start. Now the difficult internal politics of filling out the rest of his team and fulfilling his promise of delivering a cabinet that is divided equally between men and women. The Socialists missed an enormous opportunity during the Mitterrand years to build an all inclusive team of the future, instead offering the same old all-white, boys club with very few exceptions which was (and is) in striking contrast to the general population.
More to come, but a very positive sign during an otherwise tense period.
The day of reflection is over and people are out voting. The first round had an incredible 85% turnout but I doubt that the second round will see anything as high since the extremist Le Pen is out of contention. What will be of interest to see later tonight when the votes are tallied will be the number of "white" ballots (blank) and the number of abstentions. Le Pen urged his supporters to abstain and many voters, especially the moderate Bayrou supporters, continue to be unenthusiastic about either Royal or Sarkozy.
With Friday polls pointing heavily towards a Sarkozy victory, there is already talk about the direction the Socialist Party in France will take. As many have asked before when suggesting Segolene Royal was France's answer to Blair, can Blairism exist without a Thatcher? More later tonight after the votes are tallied but Chirac-TV (online and on cable, if you have it) should have plenty of reports throughout the day.
The debate on Wednesday night was not the winning performance that Royal desperately needed to catch right wing candidate Sarkozy. Sego arrived on Wednesday down by a significant margin and the most puzzling moment of the night was her decision to make her mark was on the subject of assisting the handicapped. I am quite aware of such problems in France as I have a family member who struggled due to the archaic policies that offer very little (the US clearly has more advanced programs across the board for special needs people) but if you are losing beyond the margin of error, you need to reach out to enough people and pick your subject where you will shine. Her decision to stake her future on this subject while running for the President of the Republic, was strange.
Also strange is the culture war overtones of the Sarkozy campaign who wants to battle against the images of the May 1968 revolt. Haven't we seen this battle before in the US? I'm less impressed with arguments against Sarko because of his "American-style" policies because I can see the benefits and downsides to both systems.
At a high level, it's refreshing to hear a candidate such as Sego talk about optimism and love. A bit corny, but still, compared to the doom, gloom and fear from the other side, I appreciate it. If only she could have developed actual ideas and avoided putting her foot in her mouth so often. So unless something dramatic happens, the world will get to know Sarkozy after Sunday. Will he be as scary and brutal as many here fear?
Meanwhile, the final installment of France 2007 political jokes, this time, poking fun at Sego and her countless gaffes. "Boulettes" can be either meatballs or bloopers, so in this case, the couscous Royal is full of bloopers and the subtitle says "with a chickpea in the head". I still say the anti-Sarko jokes are funnier but that is what's out there.
So now that Bush's best friend and subservient little lapdog Blair leaves, it looks as though he has a new friend coming into the scene who is not afraid to be seen with him. Lucky, lucky.
With only two weeks separating the first run, this year with twelve candidates, and the final vote, there is little time to have more than one debate. Last night could have been the last chance for center-left candidate Segolene Royal to close the 4-6 point gap on center-right candidate Nicolas Sarkozy. Both sides landed a few digs but in general it seems doubtful that Royal did enough though she was much more aggressive and combative than usual.
So what does this mean to the US, assuming Sarkozy maintains his lead and wins? On the surface, perhaps less friction between the two countries though in reality, France and the US work together very closely on key issues such as security. Business interests on both sides will remain business interests so not much change there either. Internal issues such as the economy and employment are of greatest concern in this election. The only relevant foreign that might ignite emotions (i.e. street protests) is the EU constitution. Sarkozy is against a referendum possibly because he knows the public does not support that dog with fleas nor are they in favor of such decisions being forced upon them without proper debate.
In the end, this will translate to smoother public relations on the surface but very little change behind the scenes.
After the 2002 debacle, France is back on track with a traditional center-right versus center-left showdown in two weeks. Some Americans on the right seem to think that Sarkozy, the center-right candidate who is much more to the right than Chirac, will somehow be America's best friend. Unless France decides to cede its business interests and become the 51st state, don't count on it. Sarkozy will definitely be friendlier to the US but let's not forget that what is in the interest of the US is not necessarily what is in the best interest of France. Royal would surely be less interested in building any relations with Bush, but depending on who makes it to the White House in 2008, that could change.
Glancing at the polling data, it could be a tough battle for Royal. The left (center-left to far left) brought a little more than 36% of all voters while the right (center-right to far right) counted around 44%. The next two weeks will be about fighting for the Bayrou (18%) voters. Many of the Bayrou supporters were center/center-right voters but who feared Sarkozy and his divisive and aggressive politics. I'm not convinced Sarkozy will win the majority of these voters but he needs to close a much smaller gap to hit 50%. There is also the question of Le Pen voters and whether or not they will abstain or vote for Sarkozy. It should be noted that while Le Pen's percentage collapsed in 20007 (10.5% compared to 18.86% in 2002) the actual number of supporters did not fall dramatically. He failed because of voter turnout. Again, did the top candidates misunderstand 2002 and think they needed to turn hard right or were voters angry and disgusted with lack of results or action by the political powers?
Still missing from the campaign is a serious discussion about rampant racism in the French system. There is an entire segment of society that is still on the outside looking in. They are not to be found in the grandes ecoles nor are they in the board rooms and they barely even have a showing in politics. For starters, how about allowing others to receive quality education and taking normal middle class jobs? It's an embarrassment and counter productive for the future of the country to keep going like this. Isn't it already obvious that letting the same old group rule the country is not working? Also disturbing was a comment by a Sarko supporter (and UMP member) last night about Sarko being there "to protect the French people." Absolutely puzzling in so many ways.
What seemed like an exciting year of change has turned into a major disappointment, with the leading candidates exciting few, leaving large blocks off undecided voters who could swing the vote. The good news is that Le Pen appears to be locked solidly in fourth place but the top three - Bayrou, Royal and Sarkozy - are battling it out to make it into the second round where the top two candidates will then battle each other in two weeks to see who will be the next president of France.
I appreciated Sarkozy's push for a quota system because the racism in France is painfully obvious to anyone who cares to open their eyes but his steady diet of playing the fear card and calling certain people "scum" is disturbing. After the last seven years of Bush, I've had it with fear and find it difficult to respect anyone who runs (or rules) with it.
Segolene Royal, the Socialist candidate, gives hope to empty suits around the world that they too can rise to the top of a political party. Her ideas to have everyone fly the flag and sing the national anthem are as bizarre as her brilliant plan for growth which calls for giving 10,000 euro to any young adult who wants it. Yes, France's debt is not quite high enough, so let's just throw cash around instead of focusing on specific ideas which can create jobs.
The third main candidate is Francois Bayrou, who sells himself as the candidate of the middle. Traditionally a center-right politician, Bayrou has received great attention because he's not Sego and he's not Sarko. He likes to make it clear that he's very religious and owns a farm. Despite claims of France not being interested in personal sex lives of politicians (which to a degree is true but not as much as they like to think) his campaign posters proudly display his wedding ring, hinting at his own long-term marriage as opposed to the other candidates who would fit in nicely with the current GOP presidential crowd.
Fortunately Le Pen, the leader of the extreme right, seems destined to fourth place. The top three have all made every effort possible to chip away at his base. To some degree Le Pen has been a success, since their outreach programs have moved everyone to the right.
With unemployment sitting just under 9% and the youth suffering from massive unemployment and short term job contract after short term job contract, something needs to change. France is a country that hates change more than most countries so whoever wins is still going to struggle implementing change.
Since the major riots back in 2005, in real terms, nothing has changed in France. Sure I see more police on the streets of Paris, but I never felt threatened in Paris which is a very safe city. The problem for a long time has been disaffected youth who live in the poor suburbs and who are not part of the ultra-conservative French society who detest change and don't seem interested in opening the doors to anyone but the existing elite.
The candidates for president have done their darnedest to leverage these youths for their own self benefit, with Sarkozy talking about a quota system from one side of his mouth while talking about cleaning ("Karchering" to be specific) the troubled suburbs on the other. Segolene from the left, not one to miss a PR spin moment, responded by talking about "fires still smoldering" in these communities but her hero, Francois Mitterand, never made any effort to bring this community into the political fold or improve the daily living options, leaving the issue to future generations. Even today, the Socialists ignore the problem and change the conversation to a constitutional-dreamland discussion instead of realities on the street.
Regardless of what actually transpired in the station Tuesday night and who was to blame for triggering the ugly and criminal events, France still needs a plan for integration. The problem is not going to disappear just because police are on the streets of posh Parisian streets. Real action needs to happen...not just talk. This of course raises the issue that a good friend who is French but spends a lot of time in the US always tells me: the French only want to talk and never take action while the Americans never want to talk and only take action. Not exactly a recipe for success.
The bell weather town of Donzy, which has often pointed towards the winner in national elections, if much like the rest of the country. Socialist candidate Segolene Royal has been a disappointment and has failed to ignite voters while Sarkozy on the right brings on a sense of obsession and doing whatever it takes to get elected (think McCain but further right) leaving Bayrou the candidate in the middle, to catch the imagination of the population.
With the elections only a few months away finding a voter who is enthusiastic about any candidate is not easy. Young, old or somewhere in the middle, voters are pessimistic about the choices. Bayrou is quickly moving up in the polls but the big question for most is whether he has the power to actually do anything leaving many to wonder if a vote for Bayrou is a waste.
In an election that raised hopes of change a year ago due to the relative youth of the two major candidates, most are now settling in that Election 2007 will just be more of the same old, same old.
And what a dud. Ugh. If churning out same-old, same-old was supposed to be the plan for creating new momentum in the campaign, perhaps she should have just stayed quiet for a few months longer. New ideas are obviously not of any interest to Royal so they might as well just move up the election and start the coronation process for Sarkozy now. What an absolute disappointment.
Although Mme Royal, 53, presents herself as a non-ideological politician, close to the people, her programme was mostly a standard, left-of-centre litany of proposals for state spending and intervention. She did, however, promise to de-centralise and reform the state machine; to lift the tax burden on businesses that invest in new techniques or create jobs; and to create military boot camps for delinquent youngsters .
At one point, Mme Royal promised that, if elected, she would care for France - especially young French people - "like a mother".
Speaking of the country's troubled multiracial suburbs, she said: "As a mother, the things that I wanted for my own four children, I want for all the children of France." Mme Royal was then interrupted by five minutes of cheering and chants of "Ségolène Presidente". She blinked tears from her eyes before continuing.
"Like a mother?" What the hell is that? If she actually did give a damn about the suburbs and society as a whole, she would have been discussing solutions for this considerable problem instead of talking about mothering the country.
